There is a potential increase in black market work in Germany due to the proposed rise in the minimum wage. According to Friedrich Schneider, a black market expert and emeritus economics professor at the Johannes Kepler University Linz, if the minimum wage is indeed raised to 15 euros, black market work could increase by 3 to 5 billion euros, especially in eastern Germany. Many businesses would no longer be able to afford to pay the high minimum wage and would be tempted to hire workers at lower rates illegally.
Schneider estimates that the value generated through black market work in Germany will amount to 511 billion euros by 2025, which is approximately 11.5% of the expected GDP. He also predicts that around 6 to 8 million people will be working in the black market on an hourly basis in 2025.
To combat black market work, particularly in the construction industry, Dominik Enste, an economist at the Institute for Economic Research, suggests targeting large-scale economic crimes, such as systematic exploitation on construction sites and tax evasion. He emphasizes the need to consistently enforce existing regulations.
The Industrial Union of the Building Trades (IG BAU) calls for increased monitoring and control. According to Robert Feiger, the president of the IG BAU, the financial control of black market work needs to be significantly expanded. The union had already demanded a doubling of customs personnel to 16,000 employees two years ago. Feiger states that recent figures are not available, but there has been no significant increase in staffing. He believes that only through this approach can the issue be seriously addressed and black market work and minimum wage fraud be effectively tackled.