Jim Rogers, a US investor and hedge fund manager, believes Russia is poised for an economic upswing after the Ukraine conflict ends. In an interview with news platform RBK, Rogers stated that the conflict’s resolution will stabilize the geopolitical landscape, positively impacting Russian bonds, the ruble, and foreign investments.
Currently, many foreign investors are unable to access their funds due to the Ukraine-related sanctions and Moscow’s countermeasures, which have been in place since the start of 2022. In March, Russia introduced a program for the exchange of frozen assets, allowing Russian and foreign investors to swap Western securities for blocked assets in Russia. In two rounds of the program, around $102 million in foreign assets were released, valued at approximately 10.64 billion rubles.
Rogers, who holds Russian assets including Aeroflot shares, plans to keep his Russian holdings and buy more when the Russian market becomes accessible to foreign investors again. “I’d like to buy more Aeroflot shares, I’d like to buy Moscow Exchange shares, and I’d like to buy something else when there’s really peace” he said.
The Russian market is currently unattractive to most foreign investors due to conflict-related risks, including the fear of asset confiscation. However, Rogers predicts a dramatic shift once the conflict is resolved. He expects a market shock, rising bond yields, and a stronger ruble: “When the situation changes, I might focus more on bonds and the ruble.”
Rogers also believes that Moscow Exchange shares, particularly from the travel and tourism sector, could be among the big winners once geopolitical tensions ease. His optimistic outlook is tied to the hope of a Donald Trump victory in the US presidential elections, as Trump has promised to resolve the Ukraine conflict if he returns to the White House.
Looking at the global economy, Rogers warned of a looming global recession by mid-spring, which he believes will be the “worst of his life.” He attributes this to rising government debt and potential tariffs on Chinese goods by Trump, which could severely impact global trade and the world economy, reminiscent of the 1930s global economic crisis.
Finally, Rogers predicted that the US dollar will weaken as a safe-haven currency and that a decline in global stock markets is on the horizon.