The Tax Estimation Working Group has once again lowered its expectations. For the current year 2025, the experts of the group now expect a total tax revenue of 979.7 billion euros for the federal government, states, municipalities and EU taxes, which is approximately three billion euros less than previously anticipated in the last autumn.
According to the group’s estimates, the federal government will have to make do with 0.7 billion euros less, an additional billion is expected for the states and a deficit of 3.5 billion euros is projected for municipalities. EU taxes are expected to contribute 0.4 billion euros more.
Over the next few years, the group expects consistently lower revenues compared to their predictions made six months ago, except for EU taxes. Bund, states and municipalities are projected to have approximately 83.5 billion euros less in tax revenues from 2026 to 2029, while EU taxes are expected to contribute an additional five billion euros over the same period.
On average, the tax revenues over the entire estimation period until 2029 will be approximately 16 billion euros lower than the October 2024 estimation, with the federal government facing an average shortfall of 7 billion euros.
“Through higher economic growth, we need to strengthen our revenues and create new financial opportunities” said Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) commenting on the tax estimation results. The current estimation was already anticipated during the coalition negotiations.