Opinion Researchers at Insa and Forsa Believe an SPD Comeback Unlikely Before the Election. “I lack the imagination for that to happen” said Hermann Binkert, the head of the Insa opinion research institute, in an interview with the Handelsblatt (Monday edition). “The election is over for the SPD.”
Forsa’s head, Manfred Güllner, shares this assessment. Güllner believes that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will likely not be able to take the chancellorship, regardless of the coalition, as the discontent with the SPD has been cemented since the turn of the year 2023/2024. Güllner attributes the widespread discontent to Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the weak personnel offerings, with the exception of Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. As the SPD cannot make short-term changes, it is no longer possible to prevent its election defeat.
Passau political scientist Heinrich Oberreuter also sees the SPD in a hopeless situation. He wonders where a “changing dynamic” could come from, saying, “I can’t imagine it.” “In terms of personnel, there is no more chance for change. Therefore, the SPD cannot catch up.