Germany’s leading energy firm, Eon, has issued a complex forecast regarding future energy prices, revealing a short-term reprieve for consumers followed by a potentially significant price surge, alongside a controversial call to halt subsidies for residential solar installations. CEO Leonhard Birnbaum, in an interview with the “Rheinische Post”, predicts a decline in electricity and gas prices for most consumers beginning in 2026. This easing, he attributes to government relief measures on network fees and the gradual dissipation of the energy crisis’s immediate aftereffects. He estimates that a typical household in the Rhine-Ruhr region could see savings of around €150 on their electricity bill and €200 on their gas bill compared to 2025.
However, Birnbaum cautioned that this trend is unlikely to endure. He stated that starting in 2027, energy prices are projected to rise again, driven by the substantial costs associated with transitioning to a new, renewables-based energy system – a system reliant on volatile energy generation. The increasing burden of network costs, distributed amongst a dwindling customer base, is also expected to contribute to higher gas prices. Birnbaum emphasized the urgency of ensuring Germany’s energy transition is conducted as efficiently as possible to mitigate these anticipated price increases.
Adding a layer of political contention, Birnbaum has publicly advocated for the cessation of state subsidies for rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) installations. He argues that these installations have now reached a point of market viability without government intervention and that continued subsidies are unnecessary. Birnbaum characterized this as a success for the energy transition, highlighting that solar PV systems are now financially viable even without subsidies.
Beyond purely economic arguments, Birnbaum’s call to end solar subsidies underscores a burgeoning social-political dimension to Germany’s energy transition. He warned that the shift is increasingly becoming a social question, with unequal distribution of benefits. “Those who own property and have the financial resources to invest in solar panels can, without question, be winners of the energy transition. Renters, on the other hand, are often the losers” he explained, highlighting their inability to benefit from the solar boom and their disproportionate burden of covering full network costs. This argument raises concerns about the fairness and equity of the energy transition and the potential for exacerbating existing social inequalities. The call to end subsidies is likely to reignite debate surrounding the government’s role in supporting renewable energy and ensuring a just transition for all citizens.