Initial polls from ARD and ZDF differ in their final results, with a crucial point of departure being the outcome for the smaller parties. According to the ARD’s poll, the Left Party surpasses the five percent threshold with 8.6 percent, while the FDP and the BSW fail to meet the mark, with 4.9 and 4.7 percent, respectively. In contrast, the ZDF’s poll shows all three smaller parties entering the Bundestag, with the Left Party (8.9 percent), the FDP (5.0 percent) and the BSW (also 5.0 percent) making the cut.
The CDU/CSU emerges as the strongest party in both polls, with 28.7 percent (ZDF) and 28.9 percent (ARD), followed by the AfD with 19.8 percent (ZDF) and 19.7 percent (ARD). The SPD, meanwhile, records a historic low, taking the third spot with 16.4 percent (ZDF) and 16.1 percent (ARD). The Greens are expected to secure 12.3 percent (ZDF) and 13.2 percent (ARD) in the polls.
The most notable change between the initial and revised polls can be seen in the ARD’s poll, where the BSW is closing in on the five percent mark.