Researchers at Ruhr University Bochum have identified a psychological phenomenon they believe contributes to skepticism surrounding election results. The effect, termed “Cumulative Redundancy Bias” leads individuals to overestimate the significance of early interim results, according to a team led by Moritz Ingendahl, announced on Friday. This bias is proposed as a potential explanation for why some voters suspect foul play when subsequent results shift the apparent winner.
Across seven studies involving participants from both the United States and the United Kingdom, researchers found that subjects continued to perceive candidates who initially held a lead as victorious, even after they had fallen behind. Notably, reversing the presentation order of the results altered this perception. The impact was particularly evident in an analysis of the 2020 US elections, where Donald Trump initially demonstrated a lead.
The research team suggests delaying the public release of election results until a complete count and verification process is finalized, arguing that this could bolster confidence in democratic procedures. They also recommend increased public education regarding typical vote-counting processes and potential fluctuations in early results. The study’s findings were published in the peer-reviewed journal “Psychological Science”.