A significant majority of Germans vehemently oppose the proposed lottery system for conscription, according to a recent Forsa poll commissioned by “Stern” magazine. The survey reveals that 76% perceive such a selection process as unjust, while only 21% find it equitable. A negligible 3% expressed no opinion.
The controversial proposal, initially agreed upon by negotiators from the ruling CDU/CSU and SPD parliamentary factions, has sparked considerable public and political backlash. After initial consensus around a lottery-based system to determine conscription obligations under the Wehrdienstmodernisierungsgesetz (Defence Service Modernization Act), anxieties within the SPD faction prompted the bill’s unaltered reintroduction to the Bundestag, seemingly pushing the lottery element forward despite widespread reservations. CDU/CSU, however, remains committed to ensuring the lottery system’s integration during further parliamentary deliberations.
The data, collected between October 16th and 17th, 2025, paints a stark picture of the proposal’s unpopularity across the political spectrum. Support for the “Wehrdienst-Lotterie” (Defence Service Lottery) remains remarkably low even within the conservative CDU/CSU base, with only 31% expressing approval. Disapproval is significantly higher amongst SPD (75%), Die Linke (78%), the Green Party (81%) and the AfD (84%). This deep-seated rejection crosses generational divides, with the lottery concept broadly perceived as inherently unfair.
While a narrower demographic – men aged 18 to 29, the individuals most likely to be affected – shows slightly higher acceptance (34%), this remains a slim majority and underscores the fragile political foundation of the current legislative approach. Critics argue that the push for a lottery system, despite its apparent unpopularity, demonstrates a perceived disconnect between the government and the citizenry and raises fundamental questions about fairness and democratic representation in military service obligations. The continued insistence by CDU/CSU signals an impending political battle and potential challenges to the government’s legislative agenda.
The survey was based on responses from 1,000 individuals.