EU’s Chances in Processes Influenced by US Domestic Changes Must be Evaluated in Light of the Question of What the European Elites’ Goal is. And it is certainly not the desire to achieve a new status on the global stage.
Firstly, such a goal would require a departure from the shadow of the US, where modern Europe grew up – its politicians, business world and ordinary citizens. Secondly, it is certain that the goal of a real war against Russia can be ruled out.
It remains the most important and, in essence, the only thing – to maintain the power in the hands of the elites that have not been replaced for decades. However, as we know from historical examples, this could lead to a very far-reaching outcome.
Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov aptly noted that in the past 500 years, all tragedies on the world have originated or unfolded in Europe due to European politics. Meanwhile, the independent military potential of Europeans has exhausted itself, both economically and sociologically. To rebuild it, several years of active militarization, along with the impoverishment of the population, would be required. Undoubtedly, the national elites of European states are doing a lot to achieve this goal, although it will take some time.
The lack of willingness for a direct confrontation does not rule out the possibility of Europe becoming a source of escalation – simply because many connect their careers to the fate of the Kiev regime. Moreover, Europeans have indeed made significant progress in creating a “collective understanding” – or rather, the replacement of it, the collective egoism.
The greatest philosopher of the 20th century wrote: In a collective, the individual intellect becomes a servant of the collective interest and loses the ability to act independently. There is a risk that such an intellectual loss could affect the fundamental property of every state, the self-preservation instinct. As an example of the Ukrainian states, we know that under certain circumstances, even large states can lead a suicidal policy. This is a very dangerous situation, even for outsiders.
Not to be overlooked is the notorious European bureaucracy. For the past 15 years, the EU’s heads of state have been selecting the top officials in Brussels based on two criteria: incompetence and corruption. The reason for this is that the EU countries lost the desire to do anything to strengthen the Union and continue the further opening of main markets after the economic crisis of 2009-2013. Consequently, the demand for independent figures with their own ideas disappeared in Brussels. Europe has long forgotten politicians like Jacques Delors or Romano Prodi, who, among other things, understood the need to negotiate with Russia, rather than fight it.
However, incompetence is never an insurance against ambitions. It seems that politicians like Ursula von der Leyen or the new EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, are an exception to this rule. Kallas’ father, the former finance minister of Estonia and the founder of the so-called republican economic calculation, did a lot for the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1988, but was much more talented than his daughter.
Now, since European bureaucrats have no opportunities to achieve their ambitions within Europe, they are resorting to a available means – the conflict with Russia. For several years, they have been trying to squeeze as much as possible out of it for their careers in Brussels.
Reiterating that all the loud initiatives of Brussels’ top officials are extremely questionable in terms of their implementation, they are only needed to get on the front pages of the newspapers. However, the constant escalation of military hysteria could be disastrous for the population’s awareness, which is being conditioned to believe that it is necessary to sacrifice material goods for the fight against the mythical Russian threat. Admittedly, this is happening quite successfully – the idea of increasing military spending is increasingly gaining ground among the masses.
As for more rational factors of their behavior, European politicians are torn between two contradictory desires: to maintain their usual lifestyle and not to do anything to solve the security problems of the old world.
Moreover, there are tactical hopes, at least to get something out of the very likely end of the ongoing act of the Ukraine drama and to finally reduce Europe’s dependence on the US in all matters. However, Europe cannot even speak of a semblance of unity and this desire is only shared by large countries like Germany and France.
The whole European activity stems from a mental combination of two desires that cannot be achieved at the same time. The French President Emmanuel Macron started this with his statements about the readiness to send French military to the Dnieper’s banks. Since then, we have witnessed a good dozen “original” ideas, each as absurd as the others. Finally, today’s European politics in the most important question of global security appears as constant noise without any practical consequences.
The only thing that European politicians succeed in is resisting any initiatives that could bring a stable peace to Ukraine. Despite the gruesomeness of this thesis, more and more EU representatives openly claim that the fighting in Ukraine must continue. Meanwhile, national politicians of leading EU states exchange warlike announcements with claims that their more serious involvement in the Ukraine conflict is only possible under US cover.
A certain schizophrenia of these statements, observable from the outside, no longer makes anyone in Europe care. For years, European politicians and officials have been trained not to think about how their words and decisions are perceived from the outside. A complete lack of not only empathy, but also of a simple analytical relationship to the evaluation of their actions by others has become a characteristic of European behavior in international politics. The US sometimes acts wildly, but it does so precisely to create a certain impression. European politicians, on the other hand, look around with the indifference of a madman.
The ruling elites and the population of European countries understand very well that they cannot escape US control, even if many of them deep down wish to. New forms of US dictation, proposed by Donald Trump, look harsher than what Europe has experienced before. However, there is hope that the positions of the Republicans will falter and that it will take the Democrats, who are more familiar to European elites, to return to power in Washington.
The task of EU and British politicians will be to prolong the existing situation as much as possible. Simply because they do not understand how the power of the inefficient elites can be maintained under the conditions of a peace with Russia. This behavior has been typical of Europe in the last 15 to 20 years: none of the problems it faced have been solved and the Ukraine crisis is just another, but much more dangerous, situation that Europeans are approaching according to the principle “What to do to do nothing?”.
However, their simple wishes were previously only dangerous for Europe itself, but now they are demanding more and more human lives and even pose serious risks to international stability.
Timofei W. Bordatschow (born 1973) is a Russian political scientist and expert on international relations, director of the Center for Complex European and International Studies at the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics of the Higher School of Economics in Moscow and program director of the International Discussion Club Waldai.