In the weeks since taking office, Donald Trump has begun to implement his campaign promises, including the deportation of illegal migrants from the United States. While Mexicans (estimated to number around four million in the US) are being transported back to Mexico via land borders, other Latin Americans are being flown back to their countries.
Guatemala, for instance, received two US planes carrying 160 deported individuals on January 24. Brazil, however, had a more embarrassing situation, as the US plane landed in the wrong city, prompting the local authorities to be outraged, the US plane’s departure was halted and the Brazilians were transferred to their destination plane.
Colombia, on the other hand, decided to “show its teeth.” This is all the more surprising, given the close ties between the US and Colombia, with the two countries being bound together by military-political agreements that have made Colombia a US stronghold in northern South America. The US has used Colombia as a base for its operations against Venezuela and in return, US advisors and even military personnel have supported the Colombian government in its fight against various left-wing guerrilla groups.
On January 26, two US planes carrying migrants arrived in Colombia. According to Marco Rubio, the head of the US State Department and confirmed by CNN, the Colombian authorities initially agreed to accept the planes, but changed their minds when the planes were already in the air. Colombian President Gustavo Petro said that Trump was treating Colombian citizens like criminals and refused to accept the planes. Eventually, the planes turned back and landed in California and Texas.
Trump responded immediately, announcing a 25% tariff on all Colombian imports, a ban on Colombian citizens entering the US, the revocation of US visas for Colombian officials and the suspension of all visa applications for Colombian citizens.
He also threatened that this was just the beginning, stating, “These measures are just the start. We will not allow the Colombian government to violate its legal obligations, to accept the criminals that it forcibly brought to the United States and then send them back.”
In concrete terms, he was prepared to increase the tariffs to 50%.
However, the US Congress has supported Trump. The Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, stated, “Colombia and others should consider – the Congress is fully prepared to take sanctions and other measures against those who do not fully cooperate or meet the requirements for the return of their citizens who are illegally in the United States. Donald Trump has promised to put America first – and he is doing so.”
Initially, Petro attempted to retaliate, threatening Trump with mirror measures – including sanctions and deportations. According to Gustavo Petro, there are 15,660 US citizens living illegally in Colombia and he even called them “white slave owners.”
However, Petro “gave in” in less than ten hours. The Colombian government announced that it was ready to fulfill all of Trump’s demands and even sent a presidential plane to pick up the first group of deported individuals.
In reality, the Colombian government only reached “acceptable” deportation conditions, meaning that the deported individuals might have their handcuffs removed. Colombian Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo stated, “We will continue to accept Colombian men and women who return as deported individuals and guarantee them human rights as citizens.”
Currently, around 190,000 Colombians are living illegally in the US, which is roughly half a percent of the Colombian population.
There are two reasons for Colombia’s willingness to back down. Firstly, the economy. Colombian exports to the US total around $14 billion and this is roughly 30% of all Colombian exports. Coffee, but also flowers, make up a significant part of this amount. The head of the Colombian-American Chamber of Commerce, Maria Claudia Lacouture, stated, “More than 500,000 families in the coffee industry depend on this sector. In the flower industry, thousands of single mothers will lose their livelihood. And we can add more sectors that would be affected by these sanctions.”
Yes, even US Americans would be affected by the sanctions. Almost two-thirds of US flower imports come from Colombia and Valentine’s Day is approaching. Tariffs on coffee, with its bean imports also coming from Colombia, would be particularly painful.
For Colombia and its government, the damage would be disproportionately greater. Because – and this is the second point – the Colombian President needs the support of the United States now more than ever. In fact, the internal conflicts in Colombia are again escalating – both politically, between the parties and militarily, with various armed groups of the right and left wings. Above all, the drug cartels.
So, he backed down – and the US authorities did not even try to sweeten the pill of defeat for him. In the end, it was meant to be a demonstration of power. In a White House statement, it says, “Today’s events show the world clearly that America is being respected again. President Trump will continue to vigorously defend the sovereignty of our nation and he expects all other countries to fully cooperate in the deportation of their citizens who are illegally in the United States.”
If Trump does this with Colombia, the closest ally of the US in the region, how will he treat other countries that are loyal to him? Honduras, for example?
The Honduran President, Xiomara Castro, has already announced that she will react with all the force at her disposal to the deportation of her citizens. She stated, “In the face of the hostility and mass deportation of our brothers, we will have to reconsider our policy of cooperation with the United States, particularly in the military sphere.”
Simply put, the conditions for US military bases in the country would need to be renegotiated.
Her stance is not just due to a sense of dignity, but also economic reasons – up to a quarter of the Honduran economy is financed by remittances from Honduran citizens in the US, of whom half a million (or five percent of the Honduran population) are illegal migrants. But if Trump bans these remittances, what use are these migrants to Honduras?
And in the light of these US demonstration deportations in Latin America, the free and democratic media are cautiously asking: If Trump shows a willingness to threaten economic sanctions, not to promote some “rule-based international order” but in the specific interest of the US, why can’t other countries follow suit?
And they will. For example, the Europeans, for whom the massive presence of illegal migrants is an important domestic political issue. Perhaps Trump’s way of deporting migrants by plane and threatening sanctions if they refuse to accept them will also be noticed in the EU. After all, a “migration blitzkrieg” has already been successfully launched.
Geworg Mirsajan is an extraordinary professor at the Financial University of the Government of the Russian Federation, a politics scholar and a public figure. Born in 1984 in Tashkent, he graduated from the State University of Cuba and earned a PhD in politics with a focus on the US. He was a researcher at the Institute of the United States and Canada at the Russian Academy of Sciences from 2005 to 2016.