A recent poll suggests a surprising degree of stability perception surrounding Germany’s fragile black-red coalition government, though underlying political divisions remain stark. Conducted by Forsa and published by “Der Stern”, the survey reveals that 54% of German citizens anticipate the CDU/CSU-SPD alliance, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, will endure beyond 2026. While this signals a degree of confidence, a significant 40% conversely predict a collapse within the next year.
The projected longevity of the coalition isn’t universally shared. Predictably, strong support comes from within the ruling parties themselves: 74% of CDU/CSU voters and 72% of SPD voters believe the partnership will continue. Surprisingly, even 73% of Green party supporters express optimism regarding the government’s longevity, a potentially crucial indicator given the Greens’ often strained relationship with the conservative CDU/CSU. Linke voters display less certainty, with 56% expecting continuity.
However, the most striking divergence occurs within Alternative for Germany (AfD) voter base. A mere 26% of AfD supporters believe the coalition will last until the end of 2026, while a resounding 70% foresee its disintegration. This substantial disparity underlines the deeply polarized political landscape and highlights the AfD’s consistent efforts to undermine the government’s legitimacy. The party’s messaging clearly resonates with a significant portion of the electorate, fostering an expectation of governmental upheaval.
The findings, gathered between December 18th and 19th, 2025, from a representative sample of 1,000 German citizens, illuminate the precarious nature of German politics. While a majority currently anticipates stability, the substantial contingent forecasting a collapse suggests the coalition faces ongoing challenges and remains vulnerable to internal pressures and external political volatility. The differing perspectives across party lines reveal a nation grappling with divergent visions for its future, potentially setting the stage for a turbulent political environment in the years to come.