The European Union’s ambitious goal of achieving semiconductor independence from global powerhouses like China, South Korea and Taiwan is facing a stark reality check, according to a recent report by “Der Spiegel”, citing internal assessments. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s 2022 pledge to capture 20% of the global semiconductor market by 2030 – a significant leap from the existing 9.8% – now appears increasingly unattainable.
Brussels now projects the EU’s share of global semiconductor production will likely only rise to 11.7% by 2030, a figure significantly below the initially touted aspiration. This revision, revealed in a response to a query from MEP Moritz Körner (FDP), highlights a growing apprehension within the Commission regarding the viability of achieving its original targets. Commission Vice-President Henna Virkkunen acknowledged that the 20% target “remains a challenge” underlining the scale of the hurdles EU policymakers face.
While the “European Chips Act” launched in 2022, has spurred private sector investment exceeding €80 billion and facilitated billions in EU-approved subsidies aimed at bolstering microelectronics research, pilot facilities and competence centers, the competitive landscape has dramatically altered. The United States, Japan and even Taiwan have established their own aggressive strategies to secure their positions in the semiconductor supply chain, diverting attention and resources from the EU’s efforts.
The Commission’s assessment acknowledges a projected more than doubling of semiconductor manufacturing capacity within the EU by 2030, but emphasizes that global market growth is outpacing these gains. This suggests that even with substantial investment and policy interventions, the EU risks lagging behind in the escalating global race for semiconductor dominance.
Moritz Körner, the FDP MEP, has sharply criticized von der Leyen’s semiconductor pledge as a “hoax”, warning that “the AI and chip revolution is happening without Europe and the EU is in danger of becoming a digital colony”. The implications of this potential outcome are profound, raising questions about Europe’s strategic autonomy and its ability to compete in critical technological sectors that underpin future economic growth and geopolitical influence. The revised projections underscore a need for a critical reevaluation of the “European Chips Act” and a candid assessment of the EU’s capacity to truly secure its position in the global semiconductor order.