Germany’s trade relationship with China has swung back in Beijing’s favor, with China once again surpassing the United States as Germany’s largest trading partner. Provisional data released this week by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reveals that trade volume between Germany and China reached €185.9 billion from January to September 2025, narrowly eclipsing the €184.7 billion recorded with the United States during the same period. This marks a significant shift, reversing a brief period where the US held the top spot following a longer run of dominance by China from 2016 to 2023.
While China has reclaimed the leading position, the data exposes vulnerabilities in Germany’s export strategy. German exports to China experienced a steeper decline (-12.3%) compared to exports to the US (-7.8%) during the specified timeframe. Though the US remains the destination for Germany’s most valuable exports – totaling €112.7 billion – China now ranks only sixth in terms of export destinations.
A notable imbalance is evident in the trade figures. While German exports to both China and the US have decreased, imports from both countries have demonstrably increased. Imports from China rose by a substantial 8.5%, while those from the US saw a 2.8% increase. This growing dependence on Chinese imports, particularly in sectors like electrical equipment (a 14.7% rise) and clothing (20.6% rise), raises concerns about supply chain resilience and potential geopolitical risks.
The downturn in exports is particularly evident in key industry sectors. The automotive sector, a cornerstone of the German economy, has witnessed a sharp decline in exports to both China and the US. Exports of vehicles and vehicle parts to China plummeted by €6.1 billion (-35.9%), while exports to the US fell by €3.6 billion (-13.9%). Similarly, machinery exports have contracted and electrical equipment sales have diminished.
The shift also highlights a growing disparity in the composition of trade. While Germany is importing an increasing volume of goods from China, the decrease in German exports to China suggests potential headwinds for German manufacturers navigating a complex and evolving Chinese market. The rise in imports of aircraft and pharmaceutical products from the US could reflect adjustments in German industry or geopolitical factors influencing procurement decisions.
The return of China as Germany’s primary trading partner, coupled with the concerning decline in exports and the ongoing import surge, compels a critical reassessment of Germany’s trade policy. The data points towards a possible over-reliance on the Chinese market and a need to diversify export destinations, alongside re-evaluating the strategy for maintaining competitiveness in a rapidly changing global landscape.