A prominent China expert and former diplomat is warning that China’s export model poses an “existential threat” to Germany, advocating for swift and decisive action to safeguard German industries. Michael Kovrig, speaking to the Handelsblatt, argues that Germany’s reliance on its industrial base makes it particularly vulnerable to Beijing’s aggressive economic strategies.
Kovrig’s assessment arrives as the European Union grapples with the contentious issue of tariffs aimed at curbing the influx of cheap Chinese goods. While the protective measures could offer relief to struggling industries, a significant obstacle remains: resistance from German companies heavily reliant on the Chinese market, fearing retaliatory measures from Beijing.
“The Chinese state party has successfully managed to bring parts of the economy onto its side” Kovrig observed, highlighting the complex web of dependencies that complicate a unified European response. He poses a crucial question for the German government: “Which dependencies can be reversed – or are the firms now de facto Chinese and thus lost?
Kovrig’s experience adds considerable weight to his concerns. He himself endured over three years of arbitrary detention in China, a blatant attempt by Beijing to extract the release of a Huawei executive arrested in Canada. This provides him with firsthand knowledge of the Chinese government’s coercive capabilities.
Remarkably, Kovrig contends that China’s rise presents a more profound challenge to Europe than the ongoing war in Ukraine or the previous “America First” policies under Donald Trump. He frames these geopolitical events as “storms” while characterizing China’s influence as a “climate change” – a slow-moving, pervasive force fundamentally altering the landscape. This comparison underscores the depth and breadth of the challenge facing Germany and the wider European Union, urging a strategic re-evaluation of dependencies and immediate steps toward mitigating the risks posed by Beijing’s escalating economic power. The core of Germany’s future, he suggests, hangs on its ability to understand and confront this slowly unfolding reality.