Preliminary forecasts for the North Rhine-Westphalia local elections indicate a potential shift in the political landscape. According to projections released by the Institute for Infratest Dimap for WDR, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is anticipated to emerge as the strongest force.
Based on data published at 6:00 PM CET, the CDU is projected to secure 34% of the vote statewide. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is expected to receive 22.5%, followed by the Green Party at 11.5%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is predicted to garner 3.5%, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is seen to gain considerable ground at 16.5%. The Left Party is forecasted at 5.5%, with other parties collectively accounting for 6.5%.
These projections suggest a potential strengthening of the CDU, potentially exceeding their results from the previous local elections held in February, where they achieved 30.1% and mirroring results from five years prior at 34.3%. The AfD is expected to maintain roughly the same level of support compared to the recent federal election (16.8%), though representing a significant increase from 2020 (5.0%). The Green Party’s projected result is slightly below their performance in the last federal election (12.4%), a notable contrast to their stronger showing in the previous local elections.
It’s important to note that these are statewide figures carrying an indicative nature; the critical outcomes will be determined by the results in individual cities and municipalities. The predicted voter turnout is estimated to be approximately 58.5%, significantly higher than the 51.9% recorded in the previous local elections.