Four months ahead of the state election in Baden-Württemberg, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)’s lead in voter preference is subtly eroding, according to a new survey commissioned by Südwestrundfunk (SWR). While remaining the strongest political force, the CDU’s declining support signals a shift in the electorate and introduces complex challenges for the upcoming election.
The survey places the CDU at 29 percent, a decrease of two percentage points compared to May. This continues a downward trend for the traditionally dominant party, a stark contrast to a year ago when they enjoyed a commanding 16-point lead over the Green Party and a 18-point lead over the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Critically, the AfD has gained two points, now claiming second place with 21 percent – a concerning development signalling a deepening appeal for populist and nationalist sentiment in the state. The Green Party, led by Cem Özdemir, remains stable at 20 percent.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) languishes at a low 10 percent, highlighting persistent struggles to recapture lost ground. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) manages to retain their 5 percent, clinging narrowly to a potential return to the state parliament. A notable development is the potential breakthrough for the Left Party, projected to exceed the 5 percent threshold for the first time, securing representation in the state parliament with 7 percent. The newly formed BSW party, however, appears to be faltering, losing a percentage point and facing the prospect of failing to clear the 5 percent barrier.
Comparing these figures to the 2021 state election paints a striking picture. The Greens garnered 32.6 percent, while the CDU secured 24.1, reflecting a significant reshaping of the political landscape. This shift highlights the growing public desire for a change at the helm of government after nearly 15 years of Green leadership under Minister President Kretschmann.
The survey demonstrates a clear preference for a CDU-led government, with 40 percent of respondents indicating their choice – albeit a slight decrease from May. However, a significant 29 percent still favor continuing with a Green-led administration. Alarmingly, 21 percent express a preference for an AfD-led government, representing a two-point increase, demonstrating a growing segment of the electorate willing to consider radical alternatives.
The personnel aspect of the race provides further insight into the electorate’s mood. Cem Özdemir, the Green candidate, enjoys a considerable advantage in recognition and appeal, with 41 percent of respondents selecting him as their preferred Minister President. CDU candidate Manuel Hagel trails significantly at only 17 percent, a gap that has widened by three points. Markus Frohnmaier of the AfD garners support from 8 percent, underlining the party’s ability to capture a sizable, albeit minority, share of voter preference.
The survey, conducted between October 8th and 14th, 2025, polled 1,158 individuals across Baden-Württemberg and reveals a state grappling with a desire for change, coupled with an increased openness to previously marginalized political voices, which poses significant challenges for the CDU heading into the crucial election.