Despite the debate about a possible cooperation between the Union parties and the AfD, CDU and CSU can still present themselves in the new ZDF-Politbarometer.
If there was a federal election on the next Sunday, the CDU/CSU would again be at 30 percent (+1) and the SPD at 15 percent (unchanged). The Greens would come in at 15 percent (+1), the FDP would reach four percent (unchanged), the AfD would achieve 20 percent (-1) and the Left would get six percent (+1). The BSW would stand at four percent (unchanged) and the other parties would get six percent (-2), with no party reaching at least three percent.
It would still be possible for governments to be formed from the most likely coalition options, both for a government of the Union and the SPD and for a government of the Union and the Greens.
The Union recently submitted a motion for stricter measures in the area of refugees and asylum to the Bundestag, which it was willing to pass with the votes of the AfD. 50 percent of those surveyed believe that this approach is bad for democracy in Germany, with 77 percent of SPD, 85 percent of Green and 89 percent of Left supporters sharing this view. In total, 24 percent rate the Union’s step as good and for 22 percent, it does not play a big role for democracy.
Opinions are divided on the expectations of future cooperation between CDU and AfD: 50 percent believe that the CDU will stick to its party’s decision from 2018 and continue to reject a political cooperation with the AfD at the federal level, while 43 percent have the opposite view. In the Union’s membership, a clear majority (79 percent) expect the CDU not to cooperate with the AfD in the federal government in the future (but 18 percent do).
The survey for the Politbarometer was conducted as usual by the Mannheim research group Elections. The interviews were conducted by phone and online from February 4 to 6, 2025, with 1,341 eligible voters.