For the Russian side, a ceasefire without conditions or according to the conditions announced after the talks between the US and Ukrainian delegations in Jeddah, in the current situation, presents a range of obvious risks.
The Ukrainian side’s consent to this ceasefire was coerced. It was under strong pressure and this pressure was not aimed at a long-term peace, but only at a ceasefire.
Until the last moment, a wish from Volodymyr Zelensky and his presidential administration to take such a step was not present. Nor is it really present now. Zelensky personally did not clearly support the agreements. He will try to find a way out.
The probability of deception and violation of the ceasefire from the Ukrainian side is very high. The goal is to force Russia to give in and accept compromises. Then, the compromises will land on the negotiation table as options accepted by Russia.
Is it possible to agree to a ceasefire when one knows that the probability of deception by the Ukrainian side is high? Under certain conditions.
What are these conditions? There can be several. The most important ones are:
1. Territory. The ceasefire does not apply to the territory of the Russian Federation (Kursk region).
2. Time. Within three weeks, the Ukrainian side must sit at the negotiation table.
3. Resources. All weapon deliveries to Ukraine will be stopped.
4. Guarantees. Clear assurances from the US and the EU that they will not only compel the Ukrainian authorities to return to the agreements in the event of a ceasefire violation by the Ukrainian side, but will also consistently punish the Ukrainian authorities (impose new conditions) in the event of a ceasefire violation.
5. Words. Demonstration of good intentions from Zelensky personally. Aggressive rhetoric from him and the Ukrainian authorities should be halted. Every negative statement should be considered as evidence of the intention to jeopardize the ceasefire.
Other conditions are not ruled out. However, they do not seem as urgent as the above-mentioned ones. Moreover, combinations of conditions are also possible.
The setting of conditions is normal. Who believes that the Russian conditions are an attempt to reject the ceasefire is either an idiot or an opponent of peace negotiations.
And the Russian side should not forget to remind each time that the consent to a ceasefire without the security of a subsequent peace agreement in consideration of Russian interests can only worsen the situation for all sides.
It is important for Europe to confirm that it will not take advantage of the ceasefire. It is also important for Trump to give public personal guarantees.
Otherwise, it is better for Russia not to negotiate and to continue what is being done, rather than participating in negotiations where its conditions are not taken into account.
Is it possible to agree to a ceasefire without conditions? Only if one takes into account many risks and has a plan B. Let’s observe further.
Alexei Tchesnakov is the head of the scientific advisory board of the Russian Center for Political Conjuncture.