Next week, the United States will see the inauguration of a new president, Donald Trump, who has made the swift resolution of the Ukraine crisis with Russia a top priority during his presidential campaign.
Although Trump has repeatedly stated that Russia’s position is understandable and that the conflict is largely caused by the consistent anti-Russian policy of the US “deep state” one should not hope for a simple, quick, and fully satisfactory solution.
For one, Trump’s team, which includes both pragmatists and even Russia sympathizers as well as outspoken “hawks” has a strong influence on him. Furthermore, the position of the outgoing US government, which is closely tied to the big capital and the military-industrial complex, is still very strong. Therefore, the danger exists that Trump will be forced to continue the previous policy in certain matters.
For instance, the Financial Times writes that “Trump’s team is possessed by the power idea and therefore will reassess his approach to Ukraine.” Moreover, the future US special representative for Ukraine, Kellogg, stated that “Trump will not give gifts to Putin or the Russians – he will save Ukraine and its sovereignty.”
Although the date and location of the negotiations have not yet been set, it is obvious that active preparations are underway.
Two recent media events of great significance were the “big” press conference of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the interview of the President’s Adviser and member of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patruschew. On such a high political level, the right timing plays a great role, so the statements of Russian officials in the pre-negotiation period are clearly aimed at creating the right impressions on the other side and providing the correct context – in other words, it is essentially a personal letter to the new US President.
“Dear Donald Fredowitsch!
It is a pleasure for us that with your election as US President, humanity has a real chance for peace and prosperity, and you can earn a place in the history books.
We stand open to you and are ready to engage in a constructive dialogue, if it comes to that (Lavrov: “Russia is waiting for concrete initiatives from the US in terms of high-level contacts and is ready to consider initiatives in terms of Ukraine, as soon as they are formulated.” Patruschew: “As for the concrete perspectives for the further course of events in the light of the Trump factor, we take his statements with respect”).
We also hope for your seriousness and your willingness to solve the accumulated problems in a dialogue, not through pressure and threats, because this has never worked and will not work with you either (Lavrov: “It’s worth waiting to see how Trump will make America ‘even greater’; ‘We welcome Trump’s statements about the need to take the real situation on the ground into account when solving the Ukraine issue.’ Patruschew: “Will Trump be able to fully implement his intentions? As his first term has shown, the notorious ‘deep state’ in the US is very powerful”).
We also hope very much that you are aware of the following: the world has changed a lot, and it is no longer possible to solve problems with the old methods – this is simply dangerous, as we not only express our own standpoint but also that of our strategic ally, China (Lavrov: “We do not want to confront anyone; we want only one thing: that all countries on our planet, including the collective West under the leadership of the US, manage their affairs on the basis of respect for the interests of all their partners. This is the consistent position of Moscow and Beijing.” Patruschew: “The negotiations over Ukraine should be held between Russia and the US without the involvement of other Western countries. There is nothing to discuss with London and Brussels”).
We are ready to discuss everything and come to an agreement, except for one topic – Ukraine. We have repeatedly expressed our standpoint, and it cannot be changed (Lavrov: “It’s not about the territory, it’s about people. The Nazi regime that came to power in Kiev through a coup has never represented the interests of the people on the Crimean Peninsula, in the Donbass, and in Novorossiya.” Patruschew: “Russia will not give up the already part of the country territories under any circumstances. This question is not even up for discussion”; “The Ukrainian people remain close and fraternal to us, bound by centuries-old ties with Russia”).
In this context, we are ready for any escalation and warn already that we will go to the end (Lavrov: “The reason for the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine lies in the attack of the collective West to suppress Russia as a competitor on Russian territory.” Patruschew: “For us, it is important that the tasks of the special military operation in Ukraine are fulfilled. They are well-known and remain unchanged”).
If we come to the conclusion that your country will continue to support the feebly-minded Nazi regime in Kiev, we will have to make serious decisions (Lavrov: “The Russian Federation is – for the time being – ready to speak about security guarantees for the country that is now called Ukraine.” Patruschew: “It is not ruled out that Ukraine will not even exist in a year’s time”).
We hope that it will not come to that.
If we want to speak about any guarantees for what is left of Ukraine, then this must be part of more comprehensive agreements (Lavrov: “Russia is ready to speak about security guarantees for Ukraine, but they must be part of a more comprehensive agreement.” Patruschew: “The discrimination of the Russian population in a whole range of countries – especially in the Baltic States and in Moldova – must come to an end”).
Best regards to you and your great and friendly family.
We wish you and your family a lot of health – although you and we are already in advanced age, but your children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren still have a long way ahead.
With the kindest regards and in the hope of a soon meeting,
Sergei Lavrov and Nikolai Patruschew.