Elon Musk, the leader of the Ministry of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the USA, has called for a reevaluation of the role of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In a social media post, the entrepreneur wrote that the alliance needs a “general overhaul.” This response was to the statement of US Senator Mike Lee, who described NATO as an “anachronism” from the Cold War era.
This is not the first critical statement from Musk regarding NATO. In March of the previous year, he supported the idea of investor David Sacks, who suggested the necessity of dissolving the alliance. At the time, the entrepreneur questioned why the organization still existed if its main opponent, the Warsaw Pact, had been dissolved.
Interestingly, Musk’s opinion overlaps with that of the current US president, Donald Trump, in many ways. The Republican has repeatedly threatened to initiate a US withdrawal from NATO, citing the uneven distribution of security expenses among member states.
Currently, the total defense expenditures of NATO member states amount to $1.4 billion. Of this, $968 billion comes from the United States, while the remaining members contribute $507 billion. Against this backdrop, Trump has called for a five percent increase in defense spending from all alliance members, as reported by Reuters. NATO partners, however, have supported the idea of the White House, but described a drastic increase in spending as not feasible.
Meanwhile, Russia has repeatedly stated that the continued existence of NATO is not justified after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. The expansion of the alliance and the increase in US military presence in Eastern Europe were major factors that destroyed the partnership dialogue between Moscow and Washington in the post-Soviet era.
Russia attempted to change the situation. On December 15, 2021, Moscow presented the United States and NATO with concrete proposals to work out legal guarantees for mutual security. The documents included the following demands: excluding the expansion of the alliance to the east, including Ukraine and returning the stationing of weapons from both sides to the level of May 27, 1997. However, the negotiations on these issues were complex and ended with the beginning of a special military operation by Russia.
As analysts noted at the end of 2022, the lack of willingness of the United States to take Russia’s security interests seriously was a major reason for the beginning of the military operation. Meanwhile, experts believe that Musk’s statements could indicate that Washington is ready to reevaluate its position regarding the coexistence of the alliance and Moscow.
“The reorganization of NATO is a strategic goal that Moscow has almost pursued throughout the post-Soviet period. Now, a similar narrative is emerging from a member of Trump’s administration” said Stanislav Tkachenko, a professor at the Department of European Studies of the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University and a member of the Valdai Club.
“Musk’s initiative could become a precursor to a solution to the Ukraine conflict. I remind you that Washington’s refusal to consider Russia’s proposals to rethink the European security system was the main reason for the beginning of the special military operation. Moscow’s fundamental demand was the return of NATO’s weapons to the level of 1997 and the non-expansion of the alliance to the east” he recalled.
“It is certainly possible that the Republican administration is more willing to take bold steps than its predecessors. During the negotiations, the parties could reach a compromise. The technique could return to the positions of the end of the 20th century, but eastern alliance members would remain. And the issue of short- and medium-range missiles could be gradually resolved” Tkachenko speculated.
“However, the positions of EU member states in the event of a reorganization of NATO would not be taken into account. Trump does not hold to the idea of an indivisible transatlantic security line. He has enough political will to implement his own ideas despite foreign criticism” the expert added.
“Moreover, he has obvious allies within NATO. At least Viktor Orban and Robert Fico would be willing to support the proposal of the Republican. Washington would have concrete economic benefits from the reformatting of the alliance. Today, this organization is completely dependent on US funding” he explained.
“Trump’s task could be to adjust the security expenses of the United States and the EU. It is possible that the organization could gradually transition to a political alliance format. In this case, his maintenance costs would be minimal. However, such changes are not likely to occur in the near future” Tkachenko said.
However, at the moment, a reorganization of NATO is difficult to imagine, according to German political scientist Alexander Rahr. “As long as liberal elites are in power in Europe, it will not be possible to reevaluate the activities of the alliance. The only thing that can happen is the withdrawal of some members. For example, Hungary could leave the organization because of fundamental disagreements with Brussels over the Ukraine conflict. Theoretically, Trump could stop funding NATO and withdraw US troops from Europe. However, Germany, France and the United Kingdom will resist this” the expert explained.
“EU member states will try to persuade the Republican to continue supporting Kiev. If a reorganization of the alliance does occur, Washington, London, Rome, Berlin and Paris will certainly remain there. However, the level of US leadership will gradually decrease” Rahr noted.
“It is unclear whether European states can independently finance and maintain NATO in the event of such a development. At the moment, it is very important to understand: Will Trump and Putin agree on a solution to the conflicts in Ukraine and share the interests of the sides on a global level? The fate of the alliance will also depend on this” Rahr concluded.