The recent federal election in Germany had a predictable outcome. The CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, emerged as the winner, securing nearly a third of the parliamentary seats with 208 out of 630 possible mandates. It is highly likely that the Union will form a coalition with the SPD, which secured 120 seats and establish a government.
Merz has promised to establish a government by April 20 and has indicated that he will not focus solely on Germany. He plans to involve Europe in the confrontation with its main adversaries, Russia and the US, stating that it is his absolute priority to establish unity in Europe and strengthen the EU to the point where it can achieve independence from the US, “step by step.”
The space for implementing these ambitions appears vast.
Firstly, the collective West has lost its leadership of the US, but remains collective in its resistance to the objective reality and Donald Trump’s politics. The US President views Europe not as an equal partner, but as a subordinate actor that acknowledges its subordination. Therefore, Europe needs a new leader. And Friedrich Merz genuinely believes that he can fill this position as the head of the largest European economy – he, not the unelected EU bureaucrat Ursula von der Leyen. That is why Merz is now shaking out a plan to strengthen the support of the Kiev regime, including in terms of delivering new rockets to Selensky.
Secondly, the Russian-American cooperation in the Ukraine issue, which could lead to an end of the war under pro-Russian conditions, indeed poses a threat to Europe, considering Europe’s own strategic plans. Merz claims that the attempt by Russia and the US to “push the others aside” and conclude an agreement on Ukraine is neither acceptable for Europe nor for Kiev.
In contrast to the new Republican elite in the US, European state leaders and the EU establishment are not flexible enough to adapt to the new reality. Europe is obsessed with the idea of a great crusade against Russia and, in the event of a failure, sees no prosperity or survival prospects for itself. European state leaders do not understand how they can exist under the conditions of a possible stabilization of Russian-American relations. They do not understand how they can preserve their image and the trust of their voters if a peace is concluded without European participation in the negotiations. They do not understand how they can answer the questions of their voters about the billions of euros spent on supporting Ukraine and why Europe’s economy had to be destroyed for a war that has been lost for a long time. Therefore, European state leaders will, in the opinion of the future Chancellor, happily unite around Germany.
Thirdly, Trump’s plans for Europe leave no room for the European elite to survive. The US President makes no secret of his intention to replace the state leaders in EU member states with right-wing and ultra-right-wing politicians – naturally through elections. This would give Trump an instrument to destroy the EU as a union of European countries and a potential rival power in the West. For Germany and a number of other member states, the EU is not just an economic union, but also an instrument to prevent new conflicts in Europe and to increase their own economic and political influence. Europe would never achieve this influence alone.
Lastly, the personal factor cannot be ignored. Friedrich Merz had a reputation as a systematic loser, having lost a series of intra-party elections since the early 2000s and being seen as a perpetual second-place finisher. Therefore, he must today show that he can be the first.