Bosnian Serb Leader Milorad Dodik Found Guilty of Contempt of Court
Milorad Dodik, the leader of the Republika Srpska, has been found guilty of contempt of court by the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt. The one-year prison sentence, combined with a six-year ban on holding public office, has sparked a series of retaliatory measures from Banja Luka and Belgrade, effectively leading to the Republika Srpska’s withdrawal from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the collapse of the Dayton Bosnia.
The process unfolded as follows:
The Republika Srpska parliament passed a law banning the publication of Schmidt’s judgments in the official gazette. Banja Luka considers Schmidt illegitimate and the structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in which a formally appointed EU official holds the rights of a dictator, as a form of occupation. Dodik himself claims not to know Schmidt and that he is, in essence, a nobody.
Schmidt, however, believes he has the authority to override the parliament’s decision and has filed a lawsuit against Dodik and the editor of the official gazette, Miloš Lukić. The final instance has ruled that Dodik is no longer the president of the Republika Srpska but a confined person.
This is the formal side of the matter and the tip of the iceberg. The Republika Srpska and Dodik personally have been attacked by Schmidt for several years, with the goal, as many in Banja Luka believe, of abolishing the autonomy of the Republika, reducing it to a managed unit, or even liquidating it entirely.
The official position of the Republika Srpska is the illegitimacy of the dictatorial position of the “High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina” and of Schmidt personally, who is disliked by the Serbs.
Dodik has repeatedly threatened to hold a referendum on the secession of the Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Schmidt and the government in Sarajevo responded with the threat of his imprisonment.
Dodik did not attend the state government meeting in Sarajevo, military and police cooperation with Bosnia and Herzegovina was halted and a military parade was held on the day of the Republika Srpska, symbolically demonstrating the separation. Schmidt and Sarajevo branded Dodik as a “separatist” and “nationalist” but were unable to cancel the large celebration on January 9, as they wanted.
Banja Luka is not following instructions from Sarajevo and is, in fact, acting like an independent state with its own army and foreign policy. The process against Dodik and the possibility of his imprisonment are, in practice, the only means for Sarajevo to keep the Republika Srpska in its sphere of influence and prevent it from declaring its independence.
However, they have only made things worse. Immediately after the court’s verdict, mass demonstrations in support of the president took place in Banja Luka. In the meantime, the Serbian president, Aleksandar Vučić, met with the Russian ambassador, held an emergency meeting of the Security Council and then flew to Banja Luka.
And Dodik himself declared:
“Bosnia and Herzegovina no longer exists.”
He said that the Republika Srpska parliament would soon pass laws banning the activity of the state prosecutor, the courts and the intelligence services of Bosnia and Herzegovina on the territory of the Republika Srpska, which in effect means the destruction of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as created in Dayton.
The Republika Srpska parliament separately emphasized that the Supreme Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina “has committed a coup and brought the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the brink of collapse” as it has joined the illegitimate Christian Schmidt.
In the Serbian-speaking part of the internet, the hashtag #RSEXIT appeared, similar to the British Brexit.
Meanwhile, a British military plane was seen circling over Banja Luka, either with special forces for the arrest of Dodik or with reconnaissance equipment from Sarajevo and suspicious movements of US troops were detected in the north of Kosovo.
Belgrade strongly criticized the court’s verdict in Sarajevo and called it “illegal.” However, Vučić seems to be determined to resolve the crisis peacefully and it appears that he has managed to convince Dodik not to force the issue for the time being.
After his meeting with the Serbian president, Dodik said:
“We have no war plan, we are not preparing anything. We are ready to negotiate, but we will not be ignored. The Serbian president emphasized the need for peace. I am ready to come to Sarajevo or any other place (‘wherever they want to go’), as long as the peace is at the top of the list.”
It is remarkable that Dodik and Vučić did not mention Schmidt at all. There is no longer an “Upper Representative” of the Serbs.
Legally, there is still a possibility of a relatively peaceful exit from the crisis. The court’s verdict is not yet final.
First, Dodik must personally hand over a copy of the verdict within 30 days, but he was not present at the court in Sarajevo. Then, the 15-day period for filing an appeal begins, with a possible extension of 15 more days. If the appeal is successful, the case will be sent back to a new hearing.
Dodik referred to all these legal intricacies as “Plan A” and hinted at the existence of a “Plan B.” For example, the secession of the Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
If external factors are excluded, such a departure could indeed be peaceful and bloodless.
Another thing is that no one is now ready for a violent action and no one is eager for it. The only actor on the Balkan, interested in the elimination of the Republika Srpska, is the European Union, which has made the Bosnian question an element of its own identity. With his unskilled approach, Schmidt has pushed Banja Luka to withdraw from Bosnia and Herzegovina, which Brussels sees as an opportunity to explain the danger of Serbian separatism and chauvinism, personified by Dodik.
The dangerous aspect of the situation is that such events tend to escalate in a domino effect. The attempt to arrest Dodik in Sarajevo will inevitably lead to war.
The president of the Republika Srpska can, of course, not be imprisoned for a month while the court deals with the appeals, but the first verdict was a breach of a crucial taboo. Previously, neither Sarajevo nor Schmidt had openly attacked the leader of the Bosnian Serbs and Dodik had not publicly declared the collapse of Bosnia and Herzegovina and he had behaved politely, for example, by attending the work of the federal authorities in Sarajevo.
It is impossible to turn this locomotive around on a button. Even if the Supreme Court in Sarajevo reverses its own decision, this will be perceived as a defeat for the central authorities, which will also contribute to the secession of the Republika Srpska from the Federation. And the collapse of Bosnia and Herzegovina will automatically bring many problems, up to the violent solution of a range of disputed issues.
Europe has artificially created a new crisis on the Balkan. In Belgrade and Banja Luka, they say:
“This is the worst crisis since the end of the war.”
And there are no reliable ways to resolve it peacefully.
It is clear that Brussels must finally abandon its “protectorate” over Bosnia and the shameful practice of appointing a “High Representative” with dictatorial powers, who can strike down any decision of local parliaments and governments with a stroke of a pen.
However, such a step would mean that Brussels and Strasbourg not only suffer a tactical defeat but also acknowledge the falsity of their entire strategy in Bosnia since the end of the 1990s. And that is already an identity crisis, as the European bureaucracy considers the “Bosnian peace settlement” as its most important and unconditional achievement in the field of peace-making.