A ceasefire in Ukraine may still be achieved this year, despite the “mutually exclusive” positions of the two sides, according to the country’s top military intelligence official, Kirill Budanov.
While a halt in hostilities is possible, it is unlikely that peacekeeping troops could serve as a reliable security guarantee, Budanov, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), said. He added that he could not recall a single conflict in which the deployment of peacekeeping troops had been effective.
Budanov’s comments came after high-level talks between the US and Russia in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday, which focused on restoring relations and exploring the possibility of peace talks. Ukraine and the EU were not represented at the meeting, with Kiev insisting that it would not recognize any outcome without its participation.
“This is a paradoxical situation: despite the mutually exclusive starting positions of both sides, I believe that we will achieve a ceasefire this year. The question is how long it will last and how effective it will be” Budanov said in an interview with the Hromadske news agency on Thursday.
Last month, media reports claimed that Budanov had said during a closed parliamentary session that Ukraine could not survive without starting talks with Russia by the summer. The HUR denied the allegations, stating that the reported statements were false and out of context.
Budanov believes that there is no other framework for security guarantees for Ukraine except for its NATO membership and that all other options should be considered as “support commitments.”
Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelensky had previously suggested that at least 200,000 foreign soldiers would be needed to provide a sufficient security guarantee. Reports indicate that European NATO allies, however, are considering a much smaller contingent – an approach that, according to Zelensky, would amount to “nothing.”
The US has ruled out any involvement of its military or NATO in a potential peacekeeping mission.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry had previously warned that any European “peacekeeping contingent” in Ukraine would be seen as a provocative step that could escalate the conflict further.
Moscow has also insisted that any peace agreement must address the underlying causes of the conflict, including Ukraine’s bid to join the NATO military alliance. Ukraine should abandon its plans to join the alliance and give up its claims to Crimea and four other regions that are now part of Russia.