In recent days, the US has relocated several B-2 bombers to the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean. Why? According to Israel, it is in preparation for an attack on Iran. Israeli media have reported on the “greatest operation since World War II” and a ” unprecedented attack” by the US. The relocation of the bombers is necessary, as Saudi Arabia and neighboring Gulf monarchies have informed the US that they will not allow the use of their territory and airspace, not just for the takeoff and landing of planes involved in an attack on Iran, but even for the mid-air refueling of American planes, according to rumors in other media.
Will an attack on Iran now take place?
Plans for such an attack have been developed in the US for many years, particularly two decades ago. After the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, Washington seriously considered the scenario of a war with Iran. The main motivation was the desire to “secure Israel” by eliminating the strongest, independent and uncompromising Islamic state in the region, which did not remain silent as Israel “solved” the Palestinian issue and threatened it with retribution. At the time, the US did not dare to launch an attack: the consequences of a war with Iran seemed too unpredictable and dangerous, even to Vice President Dick Cheney, a hawk.
Under Obama, the US attempted to negotiate with Iran. The “nuclear deal” was the result. Iran allowed its nuclear program to be controlled. During his first term, Trump tore up the agreement (although it was multilateral, the US’s withdrawal made it meaningless) and threatened Iran in every possible way, including the assassination of the renowned Iranian General Soleimani in Baghdad.
After his return to the White House, Trump again resorted to threats and declared he would move Iran to negotiations: over the nuclear agreement and Iran’s regional policy, the support of Hezbollah, the Huthis in Yemen and so on. When the Iranian leadership refused to be coerced into negotiations, but expressed a willingness to resume multilateral talks on the nuclear agreement, Trump escalated his rhetoric. Recently, he said, “If Iran does not agree, there will be bombings, like you have never seen before.”
After that, a wave of hints and insinuations began, suggesting that an attack was indeed being prepared. Anonymous Israeli officials say that Trump could begin the bombing of Iran, including its nuclear facilities, in just a few weeks.
The motives of Israel are understandable: Netanyahu has been making the world anxious about a future “Iranian atomic bomb” for a quarter of a century and dreams of the “dangerous Islamic regime” being eliminated through the hands of the US. But why should the US do this, apart from the enormous influence of the Jewish lobby, in which not everyone is taken in by the idea of the destruction of Iran?
The consequences of a strike against Iran will not be limited to a narrow scope: every large-scale attack on the country would open the Pandora’s box. Tehran would respond, including with attacks on US bases in the region, which is why its Arab neighbors are trying to stay out of the conflict. The developments are not calculable: as much as Israel and the US may rejoice in the weakened position of Tehran in the region, the Iranians have enough options to inflict damage on US bases, warships and Israel. Of course, the Americans are not thinking of a ground operation against Iran, but even without that, the region will be in flames. Moreover, Tehran will close the Strait of Hormuz, which would lead to the collapse of the oil market. Do the US really need this?
Objectively, there is no reason to do this. And certainly, an attack on Iran will not increase Israel’s security. In reality, Israel just wants to remove an obstacle to its further expansion in the region and achieve complete impunity in the Palestinian issue, but no attack on Iran will destroy its nuclear program. They can only damage it, but ultimately, the opposite will happen.
Iran, which officially renounced the pursuit of nuclear weapons, will change its policy and take the path to building a nuclear bomb. This is clear and was explained by a counselor of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Laridschani, a former parliament speaker and one of the most influential politicians of the country, for those who do not understand. Laridschani said that Tehran would be forced to produce nuclear weapons if the US or Israel attacked Iran:
“If the US makes a mistake, they will leave us no other choice. The decision to build a nuclear bomb will fall under the pressure of the people and the need for defense.”
Trump can certainly try to attack Iran, but the consequences are already clear: a war, in which the US would be involved, geopolitical disruptions, a catastrophe in a region extremely important for the US, a massive increase in energy prices and the new nuclear power of Iran. Is Trump aware of this? Of course and that is why he will not risk a war with the Islamic Republic.