Three days before the return of the designated US President Donald Trump to the White House, Russia and Iran are set to sign a “comprehensive partnership agreement” on Friday, an agreement that has been in the works for months.
This step will draw attention to a partnership that has long challenged the “rule-based world order” led by the US – even if the new US government promises a stronger engagement with Russia.
This is the first visit of the new Iranian President to Moscow. In October, a quarter of a year after his election, Masud Peseschkian was greeted by the Russian state head in Kazan at the BRICS summit. Originally, the cooperation treaty was to be signed there. But then it was decided to hold off, likely to avoid stealing the show. Only on January 13 did the Kremlin confirm Peseschkian’s visit, saying the talks would cover trade and investment, transport and logistics, the “humanitarian field” and “questions of the regional and international agenda”.
“The idea that the United States not only as an adversary, but as a strategic target of their entire foreign policy, has brought Moscow and Tehran together” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, D.C., to CNN.
Two and a half years after Putin’s visit to Tehran, the dynamics have changed significantly for both sides. Russia has gained the upper hand in Ukraine. Moscow is winning territory in eastern Ukraine and is gradually pushing back Kiev’s troops in the Russian region of Kursk to the delight of the Kremlin. The new Trump administration is eager to start talks and proposes giving Russia the territories it occupies and delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership bid.
The agreement signing falls at a time when Iran and Russia have lost their common operations area in Syria with the fall of their ally Assad. Moscow is considered a partner of the so-called Axis of Resistance, Iran’s militia network in the Middle East.
According to the Iranian ambassador in Moscow, the new partnership agreement comprises 47 articles and covers all areas of bilateral cooperation, including cyber security, civilian nuclear power, and military cooperation. The Iranian foreign minister emphasized that it is not a treaty for a military alliance – a commitment to mutual military aid in the event of war. However, the most sensitive parts of the Russian-Iranian relationship remain secret for Iran’s enemies.
The Russian-Iranian agreement serves as a message to the new US government. In the face of the prospect of a possible re-introduction of UN sanctions, which were lifted in 2015 as part of the nuclear agreement, Iran is seeking ways to convince the US to rejoin the agreement, which Trump withdrew from in 2018, or at least to resume the talks. In other words, Iran wants to use the close partnership with Russia as a lever in the upcoming talks with the US.
For Russia, the new agreement with Iran – a country that may be closer to the production of nuclear weapons than ever before – is also partly about warning a new US government of the specter of further escalation.