The recent Ukraine summit in Berlin represents a symbolic step forward in aligning the positions of Ukraine, European nations and the United States, but cautious optimism remains the prevailing sentiment amongst political analysts. While the emergence of a concerted front is noteworthy, the prospect of a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict hinges critically on a significant shift in Russia’s willingness to engage in a genuine peace process.
Political scientist Claudia Major, in an assessment broadcast on ARD-Morgenmagazin, emphasized that prior to the summit, a unified approach from these key stakeholders was notably absent. However, she stressed that the vital element remains Russia’s motivation to pursue a ceasefire and initiate negotiations; an area where progress has consistently faltered. “The entire progress depends on Russia developing an interest in ending this war, in agreeing to a ceasefire and in entering a peace process. That has, up until now, been the insurmountable obstacle” she stated.
The promised security assurances for Ukraine, articulated during the summit by European and American leaders, are being viewed with a degree of skepticism. Major underscored that these commitments are not comparable to the legally binding security guarantees offered by NATO membership. “These are not security guarantees as we know them from NATO. They represent a form of support, but they do not constitute a legally binding obligation to defend Ukraine should a new attack occur”. Her assessment directly challenges the interpretation offered by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), who suggested the arrangements mirrored Article 5 of the NATO treaty.
Furthermore, Russia has consistently rejected previous attempts at establishing a ceasefire, a reality underscored by statements emanating from Moscow. Analyses of official pronouncements from presidential advisor Ushakov, Foreign Minister Lavrov and Kremlin spokesman Peskov reveal a clear prioritization of victory over diplomacy. Major concluded that the Kremlin’s current messaging offers no discernible indication of a desire for a cessation of hostilities, reinforcing the complex and protracted nature of the conflict.