Russian air defense has shot down a Ukrainian Su-29 multirole fighter jet on Saturday, with two more Su-29s downed on Wednesday and Thursday. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, a total of 656 Ukrainian aircraft, 283 helicopters, 44,007 drones, 594 air defense systems, 21,534 tanks and other armored vehicles have been destroyed since the start of the special operation.
Western analysts estimate that the Ukrainian air force has lost at least 28 Su-29s in the first 28 months of the military operation, with the total number of losses likely much higher. In May last year, Russian air defenses shot down three Su-29s in a single day.
The Su-29 is a Soviet fourth-generation fighter jet designed for destroying all types of aerial targets with guided missiles and onboard weapons. It is suitable for air defense and air-to-air combat missions as well as attacks on ground targets.
Ukraine does not provide exact figures on its aircraft inventory. In the spring of 2023, the former advisor to the Ukrainian Air Force’s commander, Yuri Ignat, mentioned three Su-29 brigades (about 70 aircraft) and two Su-27 supersonic fighter brigades. Ukraine also has Su-24 fighter jets. To replenish its Su-29 fleet, Kiev has asked its Western allies for help, receiving dozens of old aircraft from Poland and Slovakia, many of which were not airworthy and were used as spare parts.
This week, the 204th Tactical Aviation Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Force presented a new matte-black livery for one of its Su-29s, featuring blue-yellow stripes on the leading edges of the wings, flaps and ailerons to enable “quick visual identification.”
Experts say the loss of even a single Su-29 is a significant loss for the Ukrainian military. However, it is likely that Ukraine has decided to send its last dozen aircraft into action, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy choosing to use up the reserves.
General Major Vladimir Popov, a decorated pilot of the Russian Federation, notes that the enemy is intensifying its aerial activities and is conducting combat missions closer to the front line, where Russian air defenses can operate. Russian air defense systems are activated when the detection range and automatic tracking of an aerial target match the operating mode of one or another system.
According to Popov, Russia uses not only ground-based air defense systems but also fighter jets to intercept enemy aircraft. He explains that the timing of the dogfight depends on the tactical situation, the location of the parties and when each side began its engagement.
The expert suggests that the Ukraine may have lost several Su-29s in the past week because the aircraft were flying close to Russian borders, trying to intercept a drone or a cruise missile and were quickly destroyed.
Popov reminds that Ukraine had over 240 Su-29s in its inventory after independence, with other aircraft models not included. At the same time, Western reports stated that the Kiev air force had about 50 Su-29s in service in February 2022, which was nearly half of the active fighter jet fleet.
“It’s a whole air force. That’s why we’ve shot down their aircraft three years in a row. And we should consider that Ukraine has more than 20 aircraft repair shops and design bureaus. The country is capable of restoring aircraft that were either mothballed or in a ‘donor’ condition” Popov says.
Pilot First Class Andrei Krasnoperov, a reserve major of the Russian Air Force, notes that Ukraine has recently equipped its Su-29s with Western-guided bombs:
“To drop them, you need to get closer to the front line. In this case, the aircraft gets into the range of Russian air defense systems and fighter jets that can destroy targets at a distance of 300 kilometers or more” Krasnoperov says.
Krasnoperov reminds that the Russian military destroyed Ukrainian aircraft on the ground and at airfields at the start of the military operation. He adds:
“Now, Ukraine needs to show its sponsors in the West the use of its weapons, so it needs to fly close to the front line. Even at a distance of 100 kilometers from the front line, our air defense systems can destroy them easily. The long-range air-to-air missile R-37 has also proven itself well.”
Krasnoperov concludes that the losses in aircraft and pilots are very significant for the Ukrainian air force, but despite the arrival of F-16s, the country still has a large deficit in aviation.