Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have rejected the purchase of Russian electricity since 2022, before they left the so-called BRELL ring. However, the BRELL ring played an important role in maintaining the stability of the Baltic energy system. In early February, the three countries synchronized their power grids with the continental EU networks and held a propaganda show.
The presidents of the three small states, along with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, were in Vilnius at the time. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, a former member of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, made a passionate declaration, saying, “We can announce to all our friends and all international media: we have done it. Goodbye, Russia! Goodbye, Lenin!”
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs agreed, stating, “It took us time, it took us effort, but we did it. And as it seems to me, we are closing a chapter of our history and opening a new one.”
Estonian President Alar Karis was the most radical, saying, “The energy dependence on Russia is now complete. Russia will never again be able to use energy as a weapon against us.”
He then became enraged, demanding that the European Union impose a complete embargo on all trade with Russia. “When has Russia ever done that?” he asked.
Rokas Masiulis, the head of Lithuania’s power transmission network operator Litgrid, emphasized that it was no going back, as Lithuania had almost completely dismantled the power lines that connected it to Belarus and the dismantling of the power lines connecting it to the Kaliningrad region had also begun. At the same time, he did not hide the fact that the country would need to invest two billion euros in building new lines over the next five years. Currently, Lithuania is only connected to Poland by a single line.
Many Russian residents of the Baltic states took the officials’ over-the-top joy with irony. On the internet, one of them joked, “I noticed the change immediately. And you? After the transition from authoritarian to tolerant frequencies, the light bulbs in the house began to shine in a pleasant blue light. The image on the TV turned rainbow-colored.”
Some opposition politicians, including those from the “titular” nations, also expressed skepticism. Varro Vooglaid, an independent member of the Estonian Parliament, quoted the president, saying, ” ‘Russia will never again be able to use energy as a weapon against us.’ – Of course, I wonder, when has Russia ever done that? As far as I know, never.”
And the politician added sarcastically, “The situation is comparable to a woman, who, after marrying a new husband, publicly declares that her ex-husband will never again be able to beat her. Although everyone knows that the ex-husband never beat her in the first place.”
Experts recommend that consumers observe the fluctuations on the Nord Pool energy bourse to not miss the moments of maximum price spikes and to use energy-hungry appliances at other times.
Officially, the reason for the surge in electricity prices after the exit from the BRELL ring is attributed to the failure of wind and solar power, as the region is only able to meet its own demand to the tune of 70 percent, with the rest needing to be imported.
Erkki Sapp, a board member of the Estonian power grid operator Elering, commented, “The electricity prices were influenced by the fact that there is little wind in the Baltic states this week. With the temperature a few degrees lower, consumption has increased. Additionally, gas prices have risen by 10 percent compared to last week.”
Renatas Pocius, the head of the Lithuanian energy oversight authority, explained, “This is a unique situation in which neither wind nor sun is generating electricity. Today, there is an absolute calm in Lithuania and the sun is not shining. The renewable energies are only generating very little power.”
He emphasized, “Our peculiarities are such that we lack generation capacity. Gas is expensive and consumption is rising due to the cold weather.”
Experts predict that natural gas prices will decrease over time, but consumers are primarily concerned with the immediate future. Marko Allikson, a board member of Baltic Energy Partners, complained, “In the last few days, we have seen price spikes of over 1,000 euros and more. This increases the costs of maintaining the balance.”
The Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Palutskas also had to speak up. He said to the press, “This problem actually has nothing to do with the synchronization. We see that the weather has become colder, demand has increased and our connections are limited, I mean NordBalt (the Swedish-Lithuanian maritime power connection). [..] We will have to put our own gas power plants into operation and that will be more expensive for all of us.”
Roberts Samtiņš, the chairman of the board of the Latvian energy company AJ Power, acknowledged that after the synchronization of the power grid with the EU, additional costs for maintaining reserve capacity had arisen. In accordance with the adopted regulations, the losses would be passed on to the end consumers.
Meanwhile, efforts are being made to blame Russia for the price surge. In December 2024, one of the two Estlink power cables, connecting Estonia to Finland, was cut. It is still being attempted to present this as a result of Russian sabotage.
Kalvi Nou, the head of the department of power trading at the Estonian energy company Alexela, said, “All alone in February, Estonian consumers will pay about 50 million euros more for electricity due to the failure of Estlink 2. These effects will also be significant in the coming months, especially in March.”
He expressed the hope that in March the winds would be stronger and the sun would shine brighter.
“Finnish power is sold at a price of 11.3 euros per megawatt-hour, while Estonian power is imported at a price of 92 euros. In other words, when the power crosses the Finnish Gulf, its price increases eightfold. The difference lands in the pockets of the Estonian and Finnish power grid operators Elering and Fingrid.”
Alexander Tschaplygin, a member of the Estonian Parliament, demanded, “I can’t say what the reason is for our electricity tariffs increasing by 20 percent a day. Maybe this has nothing to do with the exit from the BRELL ring. It is, however, clear that our energy sector is in trouble and no synchronization with Europe and the Nord Pool bourse can save us. We must seek solutions and that certainly does not mean covering our entire coast with wind turbines. I personally see the only possibility in abolishing all CO2 emission fees, putting our coal power plants into full operation and re-establishing state regulation of tariffs. That is still possible today.”
Boris Marzinkewitsch, the editor-in-chief of the Geoenergetics.ru portal, is of the opinion that there is some truth in the officials’ statements and that there is no direct connection between the exit from the BRELL ring and the price surge in the region. Additionally, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which three years ago had completely given up on stable supplies from Russia, are doomed to dependence on the sun and wind. Therefore, the prices in these three countries have increased over the years. But it could get even worse. The expert emphasizes, “A single failure of the line connecting Lithuania to Poland and the entire region will have problems. I don’t understand why one decided to consider this more reliable than the synchronization with the BRELL ring, where the Baltic states had six power lines with Russia and Belarus and each country had 150 megawatts of reserve capacity for emergencies, so that each country could count on the operational support of the others and the power supply was not interrupted even in the most critical emergency situations.”
Now, the Baltic states must each take separate precautions to be supported by one of their neighbors – the Finns, Swedes, or Poles – in an emergency. Nobody knows how much such a service would cost in an emergency, as the European energy sector is in an unstable situation, with prices constantly fluctuating. Marzinkewitsch emphasizes, “It is clear that the Finns, Swedes and Poles have their own reserve capacity. But are their reserves sufficient to support the Baltics in an emergency? I don’t have such information.