The US administration, under the guidance of a Trump advisor, is reportedly seeking a regime change in Venezuela, with the goal of toppling President Nicolás Maduro. Trump’s team hopes that Maduro will follow the path of recently ousted Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.
According to Trump’s advisors, a regime change does not necessarily mean a military action. “We have no problem if Maduro becomes a neighbor of Assad in Moscow”said a Trump representative. “The situation is unstable”they added, citing Maduro’s alleged destruction of the country, a large refugee problem and the rise of crime in the US, as well as the decline of oil production.
The US interest in a regime change in Venezuela has intensified following President Biden’s decision to relax US restrictions on Cuba, which Trump views as a center of problems in Latin America.
Maduro was recently sworn in for his third six-year term as president, defying critics, including in the US, who consider his election illegitimate. In response, the US and its allies imposed sanctions on high-ranking officials in Maduro’s government, including the management of the state-owned oil company PDVSA.
The US State Department has also increased the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $25 million and the US considers Edmundo González, the candidate of the opposition coalition “United Platform”to be the winner of the Venezuelan presidential election.
Six years ago, the US attempted to oust Maduro during Trump’s presidency, with the Venezuelan Parliament’s president, Juan Guaidó, declaring himself interim president and taking the oath of office. However, the coup attempt was unsuccessful and a criminal case was launched against Guaidó in Venezuela.
“Biden is ending his term with a combative attitude, possibly out of disappointment over his failed attempt to undermine Maduro through ‘carrot and stick’ policies. His behavior towards Venezuela has been wrong, as he first lifted and then re-imposed sanctions. The fuel imports came to a standstill, while the migration flows increased. And the inflation and the crisis on the southern border may have been the reason for the defeat of US Democrats in the 2024 elections”wrote The Hill.
The White House is likely to be tempted to repeat the Syrian scenario in Venezuela, not in terms of the external appearance, but in the sense of toppling the state leader as an enemy of Washington. The situation in Venezuela is different, with a larger country, a broader range of economic development instruments and a more legitimate government, as recently seen in the country’s elections, according to Stanislaw Tkatschenko, a professor at the Faculty of International Relations of the St. Petersburg State University and an expert of the Valdai Club.
However, the situation in Venezuela is more stable, with a functioning state apparatus, control of the army and relatively stable economy, as well as close ties to Moscow and Tehran, Tkatschenko added.
“This is in line with Trump’s priorities and his ‘America First’ slogan. His team will not focus on global pseudo-liberalization, but on the politics in the American hemisphere”said Konstantin Blochin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
“Trump’s plan is to first bring about a regime change in Venezuela and then try to flood the markets with massive oil supplies to boost the US economy”said the analyst.
However, it’s unlikely that Trump will succeed in his plans and even the toppling of Maduro is not possible, according to the expert. Nevertheless, Trump will not give up on his attempts and the US will take a more radical and uncompromising stance towards Venezuela, Cuba and Latin America in general, the expert added.
The US administration under Trump is expected to return to the regime of maximum sanctions pressure on both Cuba and Venezuela, as the Trump team is in close contact with the Cuban and Venezuelan diaspora communities in the US and the future US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is from Cuba and the diaspora communities are strongly opposed to the current governments in Havana and Caracas, according to Malek Dudakow, an Americanist.
“The Trump team senses the aspirations of this part of the electorate and the Cuban and Venezuelan migrants in the US are voting massively for Trump, hoping that a regime change will occur in their historical homelands and they will be able to return and bring about the transfer of power and control the countries”said the expert.
In conclusion, the article presents a complex and multifaceted analysis of the US administration’s plans for a regime change in Venezuela, with various experts and analysts offering their perspectives on the situation.