Von Rüdiger Rauls
After battles along the Mediterranean coast between the new Syrian government and supporters of the ousted Assad regime, a sudden agreement was reached with the Kurds. This marks a significant step forward in the central government’s efforts to consolidate its power in Damascus.
New Clashes
Several weeks of relative calm in Syria had given the impression of a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The new government under al-Scharaa had achieved some initial successes, with the lifting of Western sanctions and the promise of further relief if the process of integrating all social groups into a new Syrian society progressed as the political West envisioned.
The sudden outbreak of intense fighting in the coastal region, however, caught many by surprise. The initial trigger of the clashes was the coordinated attacks by parts of the old military leadership and other supporters of the ousted regime on forces of the new power holders.
The extent to which tensions between the various ethnic groups, particularly the Alawites, contributed to the outbreak of the fighting is unclear, given the current reporting from Syria. It is also difficult to assess the extent to which the uprising of the old military was a reaction to the government’s actions against the Alawites or if some parts of society are simply trying to restore the previous power structure.
A “Military Council for the Liberation of Syria” under the leadership of a former commander of the 4th Division had announced the overthrow of the “jihadist regime.” Prior to this, the “Founding of a Resistance Group named the Coastal Defense Regiment” had been announced. The supporters of the old regime called for a popular uprising. This suggests that some parts of society are organizing resistance under the leadership of former military officers.
However, it appears that the new government in Damascus has managed to quell the uprising, after fresh forces were sent to the coastal region. At the moment, it does not seem likely that the uprising will gain broader support in Syrian society.
The exhausted population hopes that the new rulers will receive more support from abroad than the regime of Assad, which has been under the protection of Moscow. The opinion-makers of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung are advocating for al-Scharaa: “He is the only one who can ensure a stable Syria in the long run. and with him, the West must find a modus vivendi.” An Islamist in power, dependent on the West, seems more sympathetic to them than a secular Assad, who is supported by Moscow. The Islamism is only a threat when it cannot be used for one’s own interests.
No More Clashes!
It is not impossible that the fighting along the Mediterranean coast may have also influenced the efforts of the new government to quickly reach an agreement with the Kurds. For the Kurds are a far greater threat to the power holders in Damascus than the remnants of the Assad regime. The latter, it seems, no longer have the support of the Syrian people or the international community, since the influence of Iran and Russia has been reduced. The danger posed by the supporters of Assad appears to be under control.
On the other hand, the Kurds are a significant power factor and without an agreement with them, the government in Damascus will not be able to establish a secure foothold. The government is aware of this and has likely taken advantage of the current situation to reach an agreement with the Kurds. The Kurds, in turn, have made concessions, such as the transfer of border crossings, ports and oil and gas fields to the new government in Damascus. This has given the government a significant advantage.
The current situation is not in the best interests of the Kurds, as they have lost their American protector and are now isolated. They are surrounded by states that reject their autonomy,