Concerns are mounting within German political circles regarding impending consequences stemming from significant cuts to international humanitarian aid, drawing parallels to the destabilizing effects observed in Syria a decade ago. State Minister Serap Güler of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), in statements to “Der Spiegel” and “Report Mainz”, underscored the potential for repeating past mistakes, emphasizing that German foreign policy necessitates a longer-term perspective.
The reductions, spearheaded by major donor nations including the United States, France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, are particularly alarming given the ongoing brutal conflict in Sudan. Germany itself is implementing substantial budget cuts, slashing humanitarian funding from €2.2 billion in the current year to approximately €1 billion for 2025, a figure slated to remain unchanged in 2026. This action directly contradicts commitments outlined in the governing coalition agreement.
These cuts are exacerbating an already precarious situation in Sudan and its neighboring countries, forcing organizations such as the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and the World Food Programme to curtail vital assistance programs. Internal assessments reveal a growing apprehension within European governments regarding the evolving dynamics in the region.
Reports detail increasingly dire conditions within Sudanese refugee camps, raising fears of renewed mass displacement towards countries like Chad, Egypt and Libya. The deteriorating living standards and inherent insecurity within Libya are anticipated to incentivize further migration attempts towards Europe.
The situation is already manifesting in increased migration flows. Arrivals on the Greek island of Crete have nearly tripled compared to the previous year, highlighting an intensifying migratory pressure on Greece and Italy. Representatives from the Hungarian and Latvian governments, according to leaked meeting transcripts, recently cautioned against the prospect of an “unimaginably large” forthcoming migration wave.
Critics argue that these cuts represent a short-sighted approach, jeopardizing stability in fragile regions and potentially triggering further crises with far-reaching consequences for Europe. The experience in Syria serves as a stark reminder that reducing humanitarian aid does not resolve underlying issues; it merely shifts them, often with devastating and unpredictable results, ultimately increasing the likelihood of large-scale migration flows towards European shores. The debate now centers on whether these projected consequences will prompt a reevaluation of current funding policies.