A recent survey by the Ifo Institute has revealed that over a quarter of companies (27.1 percent) expect artificial intelligence (AI) to lead to a reduction in staff in the next five years. The majority of these companies, particularly those in the industry, anticipate a restructuring process accelerated by AI, according to Klaus Wohlrabe, the head of Ifo surveys. Only 5.2 percent of the companies surveyed expect an increase in jobs, with two-thirds of the respondents expecting no change.
The Ifo Institute’s CEO, Clemens Fuest, commented on the results, stating that it may take a few years for the benefits of AI to be reflected in the labor market. If a reduction in staff were to occur, the affected companies would, on average, expect a decrease of around eight percent, according to Wohlrabe. The industry is the most likely to experience a reduction in staff, with over a third of the companies surveyed (37.3 percent) expecting a decline. The retail sector also lies above the overall average, with nearly 30 percent of the companies expecting a reduction in staff. In contrast, more than 80 percent of the companies in the construction sector believe that the number of employees will not change due to AI.
However, the survey also highlights positive employment trends, with some companies in technology-intensive service sectors, such as IT or information processing, expecting an increase in staff, with projected growth of up to over 10 percent. Wohlrabe noted that AI will not only be a tool for rationalization but also the starting point for new job profiles. He sees the challenge in translating the emerging productivity gains into broad prosperity, without creating significant disruptions in certain occupational groups.