A significant shift in German political landscape is emerging, as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues to widen its lead over the traditionally dominant Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU. New polling data, released Tuesday by the Institute for Opinion Research (Insa) and reported by “Bild”, reveals a concerning trend for established German political structures.
If a federal election were held this Sunday, the AfD would garner 27% of the vote – a one-point increase from the previous week. Simultaneously, the CDU/CSU bloc has seen a corresponding decline, falling to 24.5%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), the junior coalition partner, also suffered losses, dropping to 14.5%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) experienced a minor uptick, rising to 3.5%, while the Green Party, the Left Party and the recently formed BSW maintain their previous levels of support. Other parties collectively remain at 5%.
The data highlights a worrying fragmentation of the electorate, with the combined support for the CDU/CSU and SPD now falling below 40%, a level historically considered essential for stable governing coalitions. According to Hermann Binkert, head of Insa, forming a parliamentary majority is now achievable with just 44% of the vote, underscoring the diminishing power of traditional alliances. He further noted that the potential for any single party to achieve an absolute majority nationwide remains improbable, but the rapid rise of the AfD is reshaping the potential configurations of power.
The polling, conducted between November 28th and December 1st, 2023, surveyed 2,002 citizens. The marked increase in AfD support raises questions about the factors driving this trend, including anxieties surrounding immigration, economic concerns and a perceived disconnect between established political parties and the concerns of a significant portion of the electorate. Analysts are now scrutinizing the implications of these findings, observing whether this represents a temporary fluctuation or a more profound realignment of German political sentiment and its potential impact on future governance.