Seven weeks before the snap federal election in February, the AfD and the Greens are on the upswing, at least according to the latest trend in public opinion, as measured by the INSA opinion research institute for the Bild newspaper. The first public opinion trend of the year shows the Union remaining the strongest force with its unchanged 31 percent.
Coming in second is the AfD, which has gained one percentage point and now stands at 21.5 percent. The Chancellor’s party, the SPD, has lost one percentage point and now stands at 15.5 percent, half as strong as the Union.
The Greens, with their chancellor candidate Robert Habeck, have gained 1.5 percentage points and now stand at 13.5 percent. The BSW follows, having lost half a percentage point and now standing at 6.5 percent.
The FDP would not be represented in the Bundestag with 4 percent (plus one) and the Left with 3 percent (minus one). For a parliamentary majority, 44 percent of the vote would be required. In a hypothetical election outcome, two-party coalitions of the Union with the SPD, the Greens, and the AfD would be mathematically possible. However, cooperation with the AfD is currently vehemently ruled out.
Bild cites INSA chief Hermann Binkert as saying, “The Union is currently twice as strong as the SPD. It can choose between three parties with which it could form government-majority coalitions. It’s a dilemma for them.