A new study by the Institute for German Economy (IW) reveals a notable correlation between economic transformation and the electoral performance of the AfD party. The research indicates that regions facing significant industrial shifts are demonstrating increased support for the party.
The study identifies 117 such “transformation regions” across Germany – 91 in the western part of the country and 26 in the eastern region. These are areas historically reliant on thriving industries now navigating profound change and facing potential economic disruption. During the 2025 federal election, the AfD garnered support 3.7 percentage points higher in these transformation regions compared to other areas. A similar trend was observed in 2021, with the party performing 2.2 percentage points better in those regions.
The district of Sonneberg in Thuringia exemplifies this pattern starkly: In 2021, 26.4% of voters favored the AfD with their second vote; in 2025, that figure rose to 43.1%.
The IW study highlights a heightened anxiety among residents of historically industrial regions concerning the preservation of their prosperity and employment. According to study author Hanno Kempermann, “The combination of transformation and inadequate infrastructure is particularly dangerous”. He emphasizes the need for targeted support mechanisms, specifically those encouraging investment and stimulating economic activity in structurally weaker areas.