As the military escalation between Israel and Iran intensifies, a political scientist warns of a potential extension of the conflict to Europe.
According to Carlo Masala, the German government is likely to side with Israel, while there is a real risk of Iranian sleeper cells in Europe. Masala, speaking to the Welt, noted that Iran has previously threatened attacks on Israeli and Jewish institutions, including in Germany. He emphasized that appropriate security measures are now urgently needed.
Masala also drew attention to Iran’s allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, stating that the country has been building up the militant group for this moment and that its recent silence is a strategic withdrawal. Although Hezbollah has been hit hard by Israel in recent months, Masala believes it remains militarily well-positioned. Similarly, the Huthi rebels in Yemen, supported by Iran, appear to be currently less capable of taking action, in Masala’s assessment.
Despite the heightened tension, Masala does not foresee an immediate risk of a regional conflagration in the Middle East, describing the risk to Israel as calculable and a local escalation as currently limited in likelihood.