Poland’s Presidential Election Takes a Crucial Turn as Prognosis Suggests a Narrow Lead
A closely watched presidential election in Poland is shaping up to be a neck-and-neck race, with the liberal candidate, Rafal Trzaskowski, reportedly holding a slim lead over the right-conservative contender, Karol Nawrocki. According to a first prognosis by Polish TV stations, based on post-election surveys, Trzaskowski is expected to garner 50.3 percent of the vote, with Nawrocki trailing close behind at 49.7 percent, with a margin of error of two percentage points.
If the official results, expected on Monday, confirm Trzaskowski’s lead, it could mark a significant turning point in Poland’s political landscape. The government would then have the opportunity to push through important legislative initiatives without the veto power of the president.
Trzaskowski’s potential victory could open a clear path for the pro-European coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, which has been in power since 2023, to implement its agenda. This would have far-reaching implications for Poland’s justice reform, its relations with the European Union and its defense policy. In Poland’s semi-presidential system, the head of state has limited legislative powers but a strong veto power. President Andrzej Duda, closely tied to the former ruling party PiS, has used this veto power to block key reform initiatives of the Tusk government until now.