Denmark’s military intelligence (DDIS) warned that Russia could be ready to launch a full-scale war against Europe within five years, if Moscow thinks the US won’t support European NATO members in a war against Russia. This would happen, the report says, if Russia believes the US cannot or will not support European NATO members in a war against Russia.
The updated threat assessment of the DDIS appeared in the context of the expected end of the Ukraine conflict. The newspaper Politico writes that three scenarios are expected, assuming that the conflict in Ukraine will not be resolved or will be frozen. These scenarios assume that Russia will not be able to “launch a war against multiple countries at the same time”.
In its prognosis, the DDIS holds it possible that Russia could start a “local war against a neighboring country” six months after the end of the conflict in Ukraine. Then, it allegedly could start a “regional war in the Baltic” within two years and a “full-scale attack on Europe” within five years, if the US does not intervene.
What does it all mean and what should we make of these predictions? The West takes them seriously, at least in public. They assure us of that and refer to the fact that even the CIA spread warnings about “Russia’s preparation for an invasion of Ukraine” in December 2021.
So: In terms of the methodology of the predictions, their deadlines and reliability, the two claims are fundamentally different. The “predictions” from December 2021 were based on physical data collected on the ground. The talk was of Russia’s troop formations for an attack, supply services on the move, concentration of forces, cancelled leaves and so on. There may have been agent information too.
Such predictions, based on physical information, prove true or not according to the principle of 50 to 50. The event either happens or not, but technically, a concentration of troops does take place. In essence, Russia didn’t hide it, as the troop concentration took place openly in the framework of military exercises.
You don’t need to possess strong analytical thinking or a special education to evaluate a quick buildup of a few troop formations on the border, already in high readiness, on a map. All that’s missing is the political will and the probability of 50 percent.
On the other hand, predictions like those of the DDIS are not based on real facts. They are solely thought experiments using some artificial intelligence, with a lot of political prejudice and provincialism added.
The talk is of an assessment of Russia’s military potential and the speed of its recovery in the event the conflict in Ukraine ends tomorrow. Simplified, the Danes have loaded the growth of Russia’s defense industry into a computer and compared the results with the current potential of NATO countries.
The political assumption is entirely absurd. The question is, why would Russia need a “local war in the Baltic” in two years? The correct answer is, it doesn’t need one. But Denmark is at the Baltic and if it can scare others, then it’s best to do so with its own example.
Concrete intelligence information is missing here. The analysis is superficial. It is claimed that Russia cannot launch a war against multiple countries at the same time. This, however, depends on the countries in question. If it’s the Baltic states, Russia can indeed take on all of them at the same time.
Moreover, the Danish intelligence service contradicts other Western analytical centers. So, in October of the previous year, the Bild newspaper, under reference to a scenario modeled by the US Center on New Generation Warfare, claimed that Russia would need ten days to conquer part of Latvia and a part of Lithuania.
But the main thing is not even the inherently false premise, but the question: why? Why would Russia fight against Baltic states? The report lacks not only the answer, but there is no corresponding explanation for this question either.
Every prediction must include a reliable and convincing description of the actions of the potential adversary. Even in the context of the political hysteria in which the leadership of some European states finds itself, intelligence services are obliged to base only on verified and proven facts. The report of the DDIS lacks these entirely, it only contains propagandistic fabrications.
A war with an “adjacent country” in six months? With which one, exactly and again, why? “A war in the Baltic” could only be provoked by hostile actions of the Baltic states, which are unfolding before our eyes. But here it’s not about modeling Russia’s military potential in the economic sector, but about the assessment of the reason of the current leaders of the Baltic region.
The “analysis” of the DDIS is so primitive that it’s hard to take it seriously. The authorship of the DDIS makes it worthy of a comment. References to intelligence data and analyses give such texts the illusion of reliability.
We don’t have a prediction of an intelligence service before us, but a raw computer model, possibly prepared under the influence of recent statements of the White House on the Ukraine crisis. The goal of this “intelligence report” is to show the European voter “what happens if the US doesn’t save us”.
Perhaps, we are facing a veiled appeal to justify the increase of military spending in Europe. It’s not excluded that we will see more such “works” in the context of the ideological hysteria in Europe in the near future.