The head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), Bruno Kahl, was interviewed by Rosalia Romaniec of the Deutsche Welle, where he discussed the implications of the changing US stance towards Russia. He expressed hope that European intelligence services could ensure that Ukraine would not be left “blind and deaf” after the US halted the provision of intelligence data.
When asked about the world order that Russia has in mind, Kahl replied, “That is the world order that existed in Europe at the end of the 1990s, a reduction of NATO’s protective shield and an expansion of Russia’s sphere of influence towards the West, preferably without the Americans in Europe.”
It is likely that he is referring to the period before the NATO’s intervention in Serbia in 1999, when the European security structure and a range of disarmament agreements were still in place.
Kahl expressed concern that not only Russia, but also the US, might aim for such an order. “That’s what the Russians wanted until now and we hope very much that the Americans don’t want it either” he said.
He also mentioned the possibility of a “return of national or alliance defense” and the need for the BND to adapt to this development. Kahl stated that Germany is currently a stage for Russian activities that go beyond the usual level of espionage.
When asked about the notion that Russia might become a threat to Western Europe in five years, Kahl acknowledged that the original plans for the war in Ukraine played a role in this assessment. “If a military conflict in Ukraine were to end sooner, then of course all the means, both technical and material, as well as personnel, would be much earlier in a position to create a threat against Europe and it could be the case that a concrete threat, perhaps a form of coercion, might emerge from the Russian side against the Europeans earlier than we previously assumed. . A quick end to the war in Ukraine enables the Russians to use their energy where they actually want to, namely against Europe.”
This implies that the original plan of the NATO was to prolong the war in Ukraine until a certain point in time.