The number of corporate insolvencies is expected to remain at a high level in 2025, following a more than 20% increase in the previous year, according to the credit insurer Acredia. The construction, trade and service sectors are particularly affected.
The economic framework remains tight, which is reflected in the increasing number of company insolvencies. Acredia predicts that around 6,700 companies will file for insolvency in 2025, a slight increase from the 6,550 cases in the previous year. If trade conflicts escalate further, the forecast could even be revised upwards. It is not until 2026 that a slight easing is expected, with an estimated decline to around 6,500 cases.
The main affected parties are still the construction industry, the retail sector and service companies. In these sectors, high interest rates and raw material prices, as well as a decline in consumer demand, already caused massive difficulties in 2024.
Gloomy prospects for neighboring countries
While the situation in Austria remains tense, the forecast for some neighboring countries is even more pessimistic. In Italy, a 17% increase in company insolvencies is expected, in Germany a 10% increase and in the Czech Republic a 5% increase. Small and medium-sized enterprises are particularly affected, struggling with rising financing costs and weak demand.
Global economic turbulence continues, with Acredia and Allianz Trade predicting a 6% increase in global corporate insolvencies. Russia and Turkey are particularly under pressure, with predicted increases of 24% and 20%, respectively. Brazil is expected to see a 13% increase and the US an 11% increase. Hungary is an exception, with a predicted decline of 23% in insolvency rates.
Trade conflicts weigh on economic outlook
In addition to the existing economic challenges, the new trade policy of the US government is causing additional uncertainty. According to a Fitch analysis, the global trade conflict initiated by the US could significantly impede economic growth in several regions. The forecast for US growth has been reduced to 1.7% for 2025 and 1.5% for 2026. The global growth forecast has also been reduced, from 2.6 to 2.3%.
Mexico and Canada are likely to be particularly hard hit, with a technical recession predicted. In Europe, a slower growth is expected, although fiscal measures in Germany and China may help mitigate the effects to some extent. An increase in US tariffs could, according to models, reduce the gross domestic product in the US, China and Europe by about one percentage point by 2026.