The 45th President of the United States took office on January 20, and the event has sparked a global echo. It is likely to open a time of transition, but which one? Those who claim to have already understood everything, analyzed everything, and thus predicted everything should be cautious for two reasons.
Firstly, the internal forces that aim to influence Donald Trump, particularly on the side of capital owners, do not share the same interests. This includes traditional industries (automobile, steel, etc.), energy-producing industries (oil, gas, coal), the defense sector, and military equipment, as well as the emerging “tech” sector (microprocessors, social networks, platforms, artificial intelligence, etc.) and the financial sector, which seems to be on the rise. Trump has managed to place prominent figures, not just Elon Musk, in the teams of the emerging power structure. However, the power dynamics are still in motion.
Secondly, the complexity of international politics is not just based on the rational strategies of individual powers, but also on other factors, such as opportunism, improvisation, and the egos of leaders. The latter aspect particularly applies to the new White House occupant.
The man has an “unpredictable” side, which is a good news for those who do not expect a world dominated by the “West” forever. Although it is very unlikely that President Trump will withdraw the United States from NATO, the mere mention of this possibility has significantly unsettled the Atlantic allies, who will now live in constant fear of an iconoclastic tweet from the US President.
It is an understatement to say that the majority of the Atlantic camp sees the four years of “the boss of the free world” being uncontrolled with panic, and this will be played with. In which direction? Nothing is set in advance.
The return of Donald Trump has triggered numerous analyses and comments. Some experts predict a return to Washington’s unbridled imperialism of the 19th century. Others are shocked and count the billionaire golfer as part of a forming “three-man band” with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, who would align themselves with the “sluggers” who treat their neighbors or partners with brutal disregard.
Others on the old continent dream – in vain – of the “European citizens” suddenly falling in love with a European Union that, unlike the US, practices a non-imperial, gentle, and respectful political integration..