The final Sunday trend of 2024, as measured by the polling institute INSA for the Springer publication Bild am Sonntag, shows gains for the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and losses for the Union.
According to the survey, the Union remains the strongest force, albeit with a one-point decline, now at 31%. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains in second place, unchanged at 20%. The SPD has made a two-point gain, now at 17%.
The Greens follow, maintaining their 12% share, while the Business and Social Welfare Party (BSW) loses one point, now at 7%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) drops from 5% to 4%, risking exclusion from the federal parliament. The Left Party remains at 3%.
A potential two-party coalition, in this scenario, would be a Black-Red government with a combined 48%. A Black-Green coalition, preferred by parts of the transatlantic mainstream, would fall short with 43%.
Compared to the last survey of 2023, the changes appear modest. The most notable difference is the BSW’s clear presence above the 5% threshold, a significant improvement from a year ago.
The Union has lost one point, the AfD three, the SPD now two points above its 2023 year-end value, the FDP one point below, and the Greens remain unchanged.
There is little movement in the preference for a direct chancellor election. AfD candidate Alice Weidel remains at the top with 21%, but has lost three points since the previous week. Union candidate Friedrich Merz remains at 20%.
SPD candidate Olaf Scholz gains one point, now at 16%. Green candidate Robert Habeck remains at 14%, and BSW candidate Sahra Wagenknecht’s approval rating was not surveyed.
INSA interviewed a total of 1,002 people for this survey, conducted between December 23 and 27, 2024.