The Union remains ahead in the voter sympathies, as measured by Infratest, with a clear lead. In the so-called ARD “Germany Trend”, published on Thursday, CDU and CSU slightly improved by one point to 33 percent.
The SPD, on the other hand, lost two points and currently stands at 14 percent. The Greens remain unchanged at also 14 percent. The FDP lost one point and is currently three percentage points below the threshold for entering the Bundestag. The AfD improved slightly to 19 percent (+1) and is thus the second strongest force, the Left remains with three percentage points below the 5% threshold. The BSW remains unchanged at five percent. Nine percent of the votes are currently distributed among all other parties (+1).
For the time after the new election, a third of the electorate (33 percent) currently wishes for a government led by the Union – that is five percentage points less than a month ago. 15 percent of the citizens think the SPD should continue to lead the government (unchanged compared to mid-November). Furthermore, 13 percent speak out for a government led by the AfD. Every tenth person (10 percent) wishes for a government led by the Greens (+2). Every fifth person (21 percent) names no party in this question (+5).
Assuming the Union is the strongest force in the Bundestag election in February and could thus become the next Chancellor, then it should, in the opinion of the Germans, form a government most likely with the SPD: 29 percent wish for a coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD (-2 compared to mid-November). Every fifth person (19 percent) favors a coalition with the Greens (+4). 15 percent speak out for a coalition with the AfD (-1), which the Union has ruled out. Twelve percent wish for an alliance with the FDP (unchanged), who, according to the “Germany Trend”, would have to worry about entering the Bundestag. Every sixth person (16 percent) names no party in this question (-1).
Among Union supporters, a slightly different picture emerges: even they prefer a government led by the SPD in the event of a government – 36 percent wish for that. In second place is a black-yellow alliance with the FDP (24 percent) before a coalition with the Greens (16 percent). Five percent of Union supporters speak out for an alliance with the AfD or the BSW; the latter would currently have no chance of a majority in the Bundestag. Every tenth Union supporter (10 percent) names no party.
The concern that after the Bundestag election there will be no stable government is currently greater than before the previous election in 2021. At that time, half of the people (50 percent) had this concern. Currently, a majority of 59 percent are concerned that after the Bundestag election there will be no stable government; four out of ten Germans (38 percent) do not have this concern.
For the survey, 1,336 people were interviewed online and by phone from December 16 to 18.