YouTube could lose more than 20 billion rubles (over 180 million euros) in ad revenue if it is blocked in Russia. This was reported by the Association of Bloggers and Agencies (ABA) to the TASS news agency, based on the results of its own investigation. A blockage is certainly possible, as the company continues to ignore the requirements of Russian law in a malicious manner. Up to 50 percent of the total influencer marketing market volume, which is approximately 20 billion rubles per year, is currently on this platform, the ABA explained, and emphasized:
“A complete block of this service would lead to these funds leaving the market for a while, until a complete rebuild takes place with the involvement of Russian platforms.”
Now, the Russian influencer marketing market is facing a restructuring – and a realignment of ad budgets that previously flowed to YouTube. According to Georgy Lapschakov, general director of the influencer agency Potschwa (part of ABA), the redistribution of budgets is likely to begin in 2025, but the process will not be sudden. Companies will be forced to reevaluate their strategies and approaches to choosing communication channels, he believes, and it is highly likely that there will be a drain of investments in YouTube channels:
“It is very likely that YouTube will share the fate of Instagram – we will experience a gradual decline in visitors that will then stabilize at a certain level. A part of the audience will continue to use VPNs and active authors will remain, but their number and influence will be far from the level they had before the slowing down of YouTube. Ad budgets will be reallocated to the most effective combinations of channels, such as VKontakte and Telegram.”
YouTube has been operating in Russia for a long time with slowdowns and interruptions, and the free access to content on the hosting platform is only possible with the help of a VPN. The Russian authorities have not yet officially announced the blocking of YouTube, although they have repeatedly pointed out that the service regularly violates Russian law.
The Russian oversight agency Roskomnadzor has clarified that YouTube violates Russian law and does not cooperate with the oversight agency, but has repeatedly stated that the slowing down of YouTube is due to an outdated server architecture. In 2022, Google shut down the service for Russian infrastructure, and over the years, these infrastructure has been deteriorating. In the summer, Roskomnadzor also addressed this issue, stating:
“Numerous violations of our legislation, disrespect towards our country and our citizens are the grounds for taking action against YouTube. And we have enough tools to motivate the company in such a situation, and we reserve the right to use them.”
Recently, the American company Apple removed VPN services and some media apps from the Russian App Store. The company pointed out that Apple removed VPN services, some media applications, and podcasts from the Russian segment of the App Store due to Russian legal requirements, and that non-compliance with these requirements could lead to Apple no longer being able to operate the App Store or distribute content in the country. In November, Apple removed three journalistic podcasts from the Russian App Store: The Insider Live (The Insider was classified as a foreign agent and an undesirable organization, its activities are banned in Russia), a podcast by the Russian service of the BBC, and Echo (the radio station Echo of Moscow was also classified as a foreign agent and was shut down). In October, the company blocked the App Nastoyaschee vremya (this television channel was also classified as a foreign agent). And in August 2023, Apple removed the podcasts of Medusa (a media company classified as a foreign agent and an undesirable organization, its activities are banned in Russia) and Cholod (also classified as a foreign agent) from its platform.