Military Expert Carlo Masala believes the war in the Middle East will end earlier than Russia’s attack on Ukraine. “So far, we don’t see a concrete willingness from Russia to engage in any solution regarding Ukraine” said Masala, who teaches International Politics at the Bundeswehr University of Munich, in an interview with the Funke Media Group (Tuesday editions).
Even the designated US President Donald Trump has acknowledged that a deal in this conflict would be much harder to achieve than he initially thought. “In the Middle East, on the other hand, we see many military achievements that now need to be poured into political solutions, particularly the long-term weakening of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon” Masala said.
When asked how the war in the Middle East might end in the new year, Masala replied, “As for Gaza, I assume that there will be a deal for the release of hostages at some point. But then the question arises of what will happen to the Gaza Strip as a whole.”
Either the Israelis have only gained time by weakening the Hamas, or the problem will be tackled structurally. “However, we don’t know yet how that would exactly look like. There are many ideas, including the deployment of an international protection force. But so far, there is no scenario that the development is heading towards” Masala said.
There are three possibilities for a possible end of the war in Ukraine, according to Masala. “Firstly: Russian President Vladimir Putin could be ready for negotiations on his terms if he has secured a continuous land bridge from the Donbass over the Crimea to Odessa on the Black Sea, and the Ukrainian army is significantly reduced in size, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stepped down.” This would not be acceptable for Ukraine, Masala said.
The second possibility for an end of the war could arise if Trump, as announced in the election campaign, stops US weapon deliveries to Kiev. “Then Ukraine would have only a few chances left, and the Europeans could hardly fill the gaps. Afterwards, it would depend on Russia whether it is content with the land gains so far or seizes the opportunity to simply keep going” Masala said.
“The third possibility: Trump could decide, contrary to his announcements, to significantly expand the support for Ukraine, with the aim of forcing the Russians to the negotiating table.” With a glance at this third option, the military expert explained that there are relevant people in Trump’s environment who have expressed themselves in this sense. “I don’t rule out the possibility that it might happen” Masala said.