Political scientists and opinion researchers do not expect the AfD to significantly benefit from the election campaign by Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
One explanation is that Musk’s online platform X has never been a “mass medium” in Germany, said Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer to the Handelsblatt. The additional reach through Musk’s around 210 million followers on X is likely to “not weigh so heavily”. Moreover, the radical right in Germany is traditionally anti-American anyway.
According to the Cologne right-wing populism researcher Marcel Lewandowsky, the AfD does, however, profit from the reorientation of the X platform, whose algorithms prefer right-wing posts. This could increase the visibility and reach of the party among users. “Indirectly, this could turn out as an additional advantage for the AfD”, Lewandowsky told the Handelsblatt.
The head of the opinion research institute Insa, Hermann Binkert, dampened the expectations of a strong Musk effect on the AfD’s vote share in the federal election. “The attention the AfD gets through Elon Musk’s support could help it”, he told the Handelsblatt, but it would not be enough for the AfD to reach the 25% mark. “The AfD will, even in the best-case scenario, not exceed 25%.” The so-called minority of the third would be reached if the AfD won more than a third of the parliamentary seats. Then the party could block decisions that require a two-thirds majority.
The Magdeburg right-wing extremism researcher Matthias Quent holds the danger real. “Considering the developments of the past months, it would be irresponsible to not consider the scenario of a blocking majority of AfD and BSW, especially in the support of Ukraine, in our thinking”, he told the Handelsblatt. Possibly, some members of other parties could join in a heated atmosphere, he warned. “One must prepare for such situations.