The risk of a Chinese military attack on Taiwan is, in the opinion of FDP foreign expert Marcus Faber, at its greatest from 2026 onwards. At the latest, however, by 2028, China will be so well-armed that Beijing will likely feel clear in its superiority, said the chairman of the Bundestag’s Defense Committee to the German news agency.
A military defeat, on the other hand, could not be tolerated by the Chinese government. A failed invasion, for example, would put the legitimacy of the government in question before the Chinese people. “This risk will not be taken by Beijing” said Faber, who is also the chairman of the German-Taiwanese Society. If a military victory seems unlikely, the Chinese would rather stick to isolating Taiwan as they have been doing so far.
According to Faber’s opinion, China is therefore closely observing what is happening in Ukraine and the means with which the West is intervening. “The less successful Putin is in Ukraine, the lower the risk of a military escalation between China and Taiwan” said Faber.
In this context, the FDP politician also criticized the stance of the German federal government. “There is a lack of scenario planning. Taiwan expects no military engagement from Germany, but clear messages.” Such statements, however, are not being made, said Faber, adding that Scholz and the SPD are too China-friendly, and the Union is too hesitant in the Taiwan issue. However, the CDU has politicians who have recognized the problem, “such as Norbert Röttgen” said Faber.
China views Taiwan as a rebellious province and provokes with large-scale military exercises. Most recently, the Chinese military had significantly increased its presence near Taiwan.