As Italians get ready to head to the polls, European institutions are closely following what’s happening in the bloc’s third largest economy. The war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and immigration policies are likely to define Italy’s relationship with the bloc.
“It is a big country, with a big economy and that has its say in European policies. For this reason, what happens in Rome has a direct impact in Brussels, and the dynamics of the negotiations for the EU’s major policies depends on who is in power in Rome”.
Some of the candidates for prime minister, such as Enriko Letta of the Democratic Party, Giuseppe Conte of the 5 Star Movement and Silvio Berlusconi of Forza Italia have held this post in the past. While Matteo Salvini from the Northern League and Giorgia Meloni from the Brothers of Italy, considered the rising star of the right-wing coalition, may have innovation.
Although they have recently softened their tone, analysts in Brussels say they are still perceived as the most Eurosceptic at best and the most anti-European at worst.
“As for the economy and immigration, maybe they will break the consensus here in the EU, or make compromises and decision-making more difficult. And of course, if we look at the example of Poland, Hungary and other radicals in government, the rule of law and democracy are called into question. This is a problem for the whole EU”.
EU officials cannot comment on the matter, but it is widely believed that the bloc is anxiously awaiting the arrival of a new, unpredictable government, especially when it comes to a member state.
“Exactly in the case of Italy, I think that the bureaucracy and the so-called bubble of Brussels would feel better with the past governments of the center-left of the Italian political spectrum, with which they are used to negotiate.”
A government led by a right-wing party is likely to be more nationalist than previous ones and more willing to discuss EU fiscal rules. While a left-wing government can offer views on policies more consensual with the decision-making circles of Brussels. However, whoever will be prime minister, he too will have to face Europe.